There's not a broadband provider out there who wouldn't instantly begin billing you by the byte if they thought you (the consumer) would sign off on it. Unfortunately for them, Time Warner Cable's recent PR disaster illustrated that consumers aren't sold on low caps and high overages when broadband delivery costs continue to drop. Many customers may be stupid, but they can apparently read Time Warner Cable's 10-K form, which shows that flat-rate billing has provided Time Warner Cable with very healthy profits.

Meanwhile, Verizon currently doesn't cap or meter their FiOS customers, which acts as a deterrent for competitors in Verizon markets eager to implement metered billing. Pushing metered billing in a FiOS market puts a carrier at a marketing and competitive disadvantage, something Time Warner Cable was well aware of when they hoisted their metered billing trials upon consumers, but only in non-FiOS markets. Even then, Time Warner Cable had to deal with Frontier Communications scrapping their own cap plans to gain a competitive edge.

As we've stated all along, the only way this market sees a shift from flat-rate to metered billing is if the entire industry moves that direction en masse -- leaving customers with no ability to vote with their wallet. Right now, Verizon stands as the finger in the dam. While their GPON fiber to the home architecture currently has the capacity to make such limits unnecessary, Verizon also faces NY-metro area competition from Cablevision, who also doesn't cap and has gone on the record to say metered billing confuses customers.

But things could change, given the temptation of higher revenues. We've spoken to Verizon in the past about the possibility of capped or metered FiOS service, and they've chosen their words carefully -- leaving the option for metered billing open. In conversations this week with the Washington Post, Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg makes it very clear that the company is considering the possibility of some kind of metered usage, and is concerned that Google and consumer advocates could restrict the option through legislation:Except Google never said Verizon couldn't charge different prices for different tiers of service, and the strange telco belief that other people should be subsidizing their network builds was precisely the kind of stupid logic that started the network neutrality debate back in 2005. Verizon (and their paid mouthpieces) often suggest Google is a bandwidth freeloader, despite Google's huge investment in architecture. Verizon's real fear, of course, is becoming a dumb pipe over which content operators make a killing.

Verizon's lone legitimate concern is that poorly crafted network neutrality legislation might prevent the company from engaging in innovative new billing models. Not all users are against caps. Consumers so far just haven't seen any pricing proposals that offer them a better value over existing flat-rate pricing tiers, and carriers have yet to show hard evidence that such limitations are necessary. It's not entirely outside the realm of possibility that carriers could develop application and consumption tailored plans that deliver value.

It's just incredibly unlikely, given we're talking about incumbents in protected duopolies who are often only innovative when it comes to creating the illusion of value with their plans -- not value itself. It's hard to think that carriers who've spent the last decade milking consumers for every penny (bogus fees, forced bundles, fees for in-person service, fewer free services like newsgroups, more ads) are going to really be focused on consumer savings. The metered billing push is about creating value -- just for investors, not consumers.

You can be absolutely sure that Verizon's tempted by metered billing, and if the telco decides to move on the idea, you can expect a massive public relations push aimed at convincing you per-byte service is in your best interests. Given Verizon's expertise at PR and policy, it won't resemble Time Warner Cable's recent ham-handed attempt, either. If you're interested in the future of metered billing, keep one eye on Verizon.