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story category GSM Subscriber Growth is Slowing Down
Shocking news: people are more interested in better technologies
03:13PM Sunday Apr 20 2008 by KathrynV
tags: business · wireless · stats · world
GSM subscriber use continues to rise but its growth is slowing and it’s expected to continue on the decline. It’s expected to go from a 22% yearly increase to only a 14% increase in the upcoming year. The decline is primarily due to a significant increase in consumer interest for more advanced technologies including 3G, 4G and mobile WiMax. Despite this, there continue to be reports about growing GSM use across the world; the GSM Association just announced that it reached the 3 billion user mark.

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Forums » GSM Subscriber Growth is Slowing Down

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iLive4Apple
Hybrid power
Premium
join:2006-07-13
Hoover, AL

Well Yea

For AT&T at least, almost every new phone is 3G capable. Networks are going to the next evolution which is UMTS W-CDMA. T-Mobile is not that interested though.
--
I get 29 MPG in my Toyota Highlander Hybrid!
ISurfTooMuch

join:2007-04-23
Tuscaloosa, AL

Re: Well Yea

T-Mobile is interested, but they face a problem. In many areas, they have a limited amount of spectrum, often not enough to launch a 3G network. That's why they bid heavily for the AWS spectrum, and they ended up getting lots of it. The problem is that it's located in the 1700/2100 MHz bands, which aren't being used for cell service anywhere, which means that there isn't much equipment available right now. That's starting to change, but it will take some time, and, from what I've seen, the CDMA gear seems to be getting to the market first, as Cricket and MetroPCS are already launching purely AWS markets. T-Mobile has some phones with the AWS bands available, but I don't think they've turned up the network yet.

DaveNJ
No Fear

join:1999-09-01
New Jersey
Of course it falling. Because of 3g. Cdma isnt growing even less. UMTS is the future aka LTE. GSM(UMTS) is the future, even for Verizon. Sprint plans to fail.
cghh

join:2001-01-15
Milpitas, CA

Re: Well Yea

said by DaveNJ See Profile :

Of course it falling. Because of 3g. Cdma isnt growing even less. UMTS is the future aka LTE. GSM(UMTS) is the future, even for Verizon.
Just a nit, but LTE is a totally different air interface (OFDM) and backend (IP) from both what the GSM providers are using (GSM/WCDMA with MAP backend) and what the CDMA providers such as Verizon Wireless are using (CDMA/2000,EV-DO with ANSI backend). Just because VZW and the GSM providers happen to plan to end up at the same point (LTE) doesn't mean that VZW is adopting GSM.

BOGBS
Set It, And Forget It
Premium
join:2004-05-11
Saco, ME
·RoadRunner Cable
·Vonage
·Great Works Internet

My reason for keeping it... The SIM Card

One great thing not mentioned is the easy swap from device to device (as long as it's locked to the same provider, or an unlocked phone) EDGE isn't the best (AT&T), but I don't use my cellphone for high speed data transmission. Their 3G coverage is quite lacking as well, in rural areas, which is to be expected.

I'll be keeping my GSM service with AT&T for quite some time most likely, because I like the ease of changing devices. I'm sure it's not too bad on other carriers, but certainly not as easy to pick up a phone on ebay, or wherever, and just swap the SIM card out...

Subaru
1-3-2-4
Premium
join:2001-05-31
Greenwich, CT
clubs:
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Re: My reason for keeping it... The SIM Card

said by BOGBS See Profile :

One great thing not mentioned is the easy swap from device to device (as long as it's locked to the same provider, or an unlocked phone) EDGE isn't the best (AT&T), but I don't use my cellphone for high speed data transmission. Their 3G coverage is quite lacking as well, in rural areas, which is to be expected.

I'll be keeping my GSM service with AT&T for quite some time most likely, because I like the ease of changing devices. I'm sure it's not too bad on other carriers, but certainly not as easy to pick up a phone on ebay, or wherever, and just swap the SIM card out...
Agree I was about to say the same.. For me I love buying Unlocked GSM phones from other world markets.. My last phone was a Samsung from Malaysia and I love it. Just yesterday my friend is looking to replace her phone with another from Sprint and she was looking on Ebay and she was disappointed in the lack of decent looking phones.
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tc1uscg

join:2005-03-09
Saint Clair Shores, MI

edit:
April 21st, @01:15AM

Re: My reason for keeping it... The SIM Card

oops. dupe

tc1uscg

join:2005-03-09
Saint Clair Shores, MI
·Comcast
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·VoiceEclipse

Just yesterday my friend is looking to replace her phone with another from Sprint and she was looking on Ebay and she was disappointed in the lack of decent looking phones.
Yea, I mean, who gives a crap if it works, as long as it looks good. So, if your friend was shopping for a car, and her favorite color was coppertone, and the only car that came in coppertone was a Yugo, think she'd go for it? .. Yeah, look at my phone, it's looks cool but dang, I keep dropping calls when I can get service.

Subaru
1-3-2-4
Premium
join:2001-05-31
Greenwich, CT
clubs:
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Re: My reason for keeping it... The SIM Card

said by tc1uscg See Profile :

Just yesterday my friend is looking to replace her phone with another from Sprint and she was looking on Ebay and she was disappointed in the lack of decent looking phones.
Yea, I mean, who gives a crap if it works, as long as it looks good. So, if your friend was shopping for a car, and her favorite color was coppertone, and the only car that came in coppertone was a Yugo, think she'd go for it? .. Yeah, look at my phone, it's looks cool but dang, I keep dropping calls when I can get service.
trying to find a phone one one else had...
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Fluker

join:2005-04-07
West Lafayette, IN
·WMIS Internet

I'll give it to you that cdma is a better signal technology but the massive selection of gsm phones makes it very tough to say that cdma is a clear winner.

Verizons red interface is so backwards that I prefer an occasional dropped call vs. putting up with a terrible interface everyday.

tc1uscg

join:2005-03-09
Saint Clair Shores, MI
·Comcast
·WOW Internet and C..
·VoiceEclipse

Re: My reason for keeping it... The SIM Card

I remember back in the 2g to 3g days, I use to drop calls between handoffs of 2 switches in Detroit. When I was approaching the area, I would just tell the caller I would call them back. But after 3g (vision) got in full switch and Sprint complete it's upgrades, I've not had a dropped call in my metro area since. Matter of fact, last time I had a "signal faded" dropped call, it was in a all metal building where I had 3 bars outside. Other then that, I've been pretty lucky to have had service every place I've been. If 100% service was required, I'd just by a 1500.00 sat phone, pay the 2.50 a minute and make all my calls in the rain. But hey, that big ass antenna looks cool (we have one at work).
mharsono

join:2007-12-16
Forest Hills, NY

GSM still the first choice for people who travel abroad

I would said GSM give an advantage for people who travel abroad. You can keep all the information on your cellphone, what you need is swipe a prepaid card from other countries and start calling your friends from the contact number you safe on your phone memory.

tc1uscg

join:2005-03-09
Saint Clair Shores, MI
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Re: GSM still the first choice for people who travel abroad

said by mharsono See Profile :

I would said GSM give an advantage for people who travel abroad. You can keep all the information on your cellphone, what you need is swipe a prepaid card from other countries and start calling your friends from the contact number you safe on your phone memory.
Warranty coverage for both the phone and sim card? Was wondering, you people who have AT&T, what happens if your phone goes dead and you have insurance? Does it just cover the SIM card or phone or both? Reason I ask, a co-work who had Nextel a few years back (pre-merger) had a phone problem. They had insurance but it ONLY covered the sim card, not the phone.
ISurfTooMuch

join:2007-04-23
Tuscaloosa, AL

Re: GSM still the first choice for people who travel abroad

The warranty will cover the phone. As for the SIM, if that goes bad, just go by an AT&T corporate store, and they'll give you a new one. Some agent stores might charge you a few bucks for it, but the corp stores will almost always give them away for free. But SIM cards are pretty tough. Yes, they can fail, but it doesn't happen a lot.

I'd say that phone insurance is a good idea if you think you might lose or damage your phone. The warranty will cover you for defects, but if you accidentally drop the phone in the toilet, you're SOL unless you have insurance.

tc1uscg

join:2005-03-09
Saint Clair Shores, MI

Re: GSM still the first choice for people who travel abroad

Ahh.. didn't know if there was a choice, phone, sim or both.

hitman_001
Premium
join:2006-11-20
Laredo, TX
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quote:
The warranty will cover you for defects, but if you accidentally drop the phone in the toilet, you're SOL unless you have insurance.
Hang on a sec Bob.. i gotta wipe..... CRAP I dropped my phone in the toilet!
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pnh102
Reptiles Are Cuddly And Pretty
Premium
join:2002-05-02
Mount Airy, MD
·Comcast

Running Out Of People

I don't see why this is bad news... there are only 6 billion people on this planet. Assuming that maybe 4 billion of them can afford cell phones, having 3 billion subscribers is not that bad.
--
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en102
Canadian, eh?

join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA

Re: Running Out Of People

Yup... more than 1 in 2 people on the planet having a cell phone...
1 in 2 people on the planet are using some form of GSM.
--
Canada = Hollywood North

uhjon

@comcast.net

Between 1 in 2?

i hate statistics.

3G (WCDMA) is not GSM? that's CDMA, the technology that Verizon Wireless uses, right?

en102
Canadian, eh?

join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA
·DSL EXTREME
·DSL EXTREME

Re: Between 1 in 2?

not quite..

GSM is a corporate 'name' given to GSM / UMTS (3G) which uses WCDMA
Similarly, CDMA2000 is used for CDMA 1x/EVDO/EVDV.

WCDMA and CDMA have a similarity in air spectrum interface in that they are CDMA based (i.e. Code Division Multiple Access), but that's where the similarities end. Just as GSM (TDMA) and TDMA (ANSI) or iDEN are TDMA based, they are not the same, and neither is WCDMA to CDMA 1x/EVDO/EVDV.

There's 2 parts...
Air interface:
WCDMA uses paired 5MHz channels for spectrum (painfully large), while CDMA (1x/EVDO/EVDV) use paired 1.25MHz channels for air interfaces.

Back end:
GSM/UMTS (WCDMA) uses the 'map' (Mobile Application Part) core, which is common between GSM and UMTS/3G.
CDMA (1x/EVDO/EVDV) uses the 'ANSI' - AMPS (analog - now dead), TDMA (IS-136) and CDMA IS-95/1x/EVDO
The 2 back ends are not exactly compatible, as GSM based devices (and iDEN as well) use SIM/IMEI as identifiers, while ANSI uses ESN. There are other differences as well.
--
Canada = Hollywood North

opus74
Deep Thought
Premium
join:2002-03-04
Coello, IL
clubs:

Re: Between 1 in 2?

Well said.

We are seeing more & more new CDMA handsets with IMEI identifiers instead of ESNs.

TechieZero
Tools Are Using Me
Premium
join:2002-01-25
Wesley Chapel, FL

Which Tech is Better?

Which tech is considered better?

en102
Canadian, eh?

join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA
·DSL EXTREME
·DSL EXTREME

Re: Which Tech is Better?

Both are 'CDMA' based, and one isn't really better than the other.. just have somewhat different features and issues.

eg. WCDMA/UMTS devices do voice and data at the same time (i.e. you can surf on your Palm while on a call using handsfree or speaker phone). On the downside, WCDMA requires LARGE slices of spectrum to operate (5MHz x 2) vs. 1.25MHz x 2 for CDMA1x/EVDO.
Verizon/Sprint use CDMA 1x/EVDO
AT&T and soon T-Mobile use UMTS/WCDMA.

The 'tech' that is considered better is the one that works where you need it.
--
Canada = Hollywood North
wierdo

join:2001-02-16
Tulsa, OK
·Future Nine Corpor..
·Teliax VOIP
·Cox HSI

Uh, what?

Might it be more due to market saturation than anything else? Most people don't care a bit about 3g. They may have a 3g phone, but only because many of the good new phones happen to have 3g.

For a long time the explosive growth of GSM was driven by extreme growth rates in developing countries where wireline phones are hard to come by, along with a small helping of growth amongst prepaid users and better market penetration in North America.

Additionally, in the last few years we've seen several CDMA networks in South America switch over to GSM after BellSouth sold them off to finance their share of the AT&T Wireless acquisition back in 2004. (SBC had most of their share of the purchase price in cash at the time, while BellSouth didn't)

It's no wonder the growth is slowing. Add to that the incredibly large numbers of current GSM users, how could a reasonable person expect the same yearly percentage growth rates to continue? I'd be surprised if the absolute growth numbers drop much, at least for the next couple of years when the developing countries become saturated, as we've already seen across the industrialized nations.
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It's wierdo, not weirdo. Yes, I know that's not the 'proper' spelling of the similar english language word.
Jerkface

join:2005-06-05
Washington, NJ
·Comcast

3g UMTS HSPDA service

I personally cant wait till 3G goes into effect in my area of New Jersey. I'm right outside the NY metro area and just east of the Easton, PA 3G area which means 3g is just outside my reach. I would love the data speeds and so would my 3G/UMTS data card :P Not to mention my blackjack 2.

J
Forums » GSM Subscriber Growth is Slowing Down

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