Last summer Dish Network made it clear that the company was very seriously interested in launching a wireless network, despite previous executive assurances that the company was accumulating spectrum just for fun. Run from a subsidiary, the company is hoping to launch an LTE-Advanced network under the brand "Ollo." Dish is planning to use the spectrum they acquired from DBSD North America and TerreStar Networks, but is waiting for FCC approval.

Speaking about the company's earnings today, Dish Network chairman Charlie Ergen stated he thinks the company has roughly an 80% chance of getting their LTE network up and running. Like LightSquared, Dish needs the FCC to grant a waiver on some of the conditions attached to the spectrum they plan to use. Unlike LightSquared, Dish's spectrum holdings won't interfere with GPS technology.

"As we get into that business, I would say we have an 80% chance of success. If so you go full bore and give your best effort," says Ergen. "If by chance we were not granted a waiver or it was kicked down the road without a decision through rulemaking, then I think that we'd have to consider the risk, and at this point, I'd say we probably don't have an 80% chance of success," Ergen said.

Dish is expected to get the FCC waiver, and had previously stated they'd accept some buildout conditions "consistent with FCC precedent and based on the buildout principles established." In Sprint Nextel's combination of its spectrum assets with Clearwire, they were required to offer service to 15 million POPs in four years and 30 million POPs within six years. Tim Farrar at TMF Associates has a pretty good idea what kind of spectrum repositioning Dish's deal with the FCC will entail.

Should Dish get FCC approval, the LTE Advanced equipment for its S-band spectrum they plan to use likely won't even be available until 2015 -- meaning any real Dish LTE network would be several years out. AT&T is lobbying hard to get Dish's build out obligations increased to the point where they'd be unreasonable, which would force Dish to sell the spectrum to AT&T. Dish would at least net the cash from their spectrum holdings, but it would be an unfortunate event given the death of LightSquared and the tenuous footing of other AT&T Verizon would-be competitors like Clearwire.