 
maartena
Nice'n Round.
Premium
join:2002-05-10
Orange, CA
 ·RoadRunner Cable
| QWest will sell itself to the highest bidder. At some point in time, QWest realized that it cannot compete without a cellular phone network (AT&T and Verizon are losing hundreds of land-line customers a day to cellular only - which THEY don't mind), and without a good broadband strategy.
They will milk the DSL and land-line market as long as they can, and they you will see talks with AT&T or Verizon for a "merger".
--
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both" -
Benjamin Franklin, Founding Father. | |
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dvd536
as Mr. Pink as they come
Premium
join:2001-04-27
Phoenix, AZ | Re: QWest will sell itself to the highest bidder. Qwest just needs to DIE and let verizon take over. | |
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| | hottboiinnc
ME
join:2003-10-15
Toledo, OH | Re: QWest will sell itself to the highest bidder. So what they can sell off most of the network to someone else like Fairpoint and let everyone on here bitch some more on how much of a horrible company FP is?
If you don't like Qwest don't use them. | |
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PGHammer
join:2003-06-09
Accokeek, MD
clubs:
·Comcast
| Re: QWest will sell itself to the highest bidder. said by hottboiinnc  :So what they can sell off most of the network to someone else like Fairpoint and let everyone on here bitch some more on how much of a horrible company FP is? If you don't like Qwest don't use them. You have to have an option, and for the majority of Qwest's landline customer base, there *is* no real option, and they know it. | |
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Cheese
Premium
join:2003-10-26
Naples, FL
clubs:
| Re: QWest will sell itself to the highest bidder. said by supergirl :VZ isn't that stupid, and, despite AT&T being as dumb as a turnip, they ain't either. BellSouth was a far better company on its own. I think Sprint should buy Qwest. Then, Sprint can have the distintion of destroying not only Nextel but a landline company as well.  Not that Qwest needs much help. Qwest has some lousy cash flow. My stockbroker calls Qwest a moneypit. She calls them "Qwest for Failure."  Her names for some companies: AT&T - The result of the Empire crossed with an idiot. Microsoft - Boys with bad toys. Vonage - Citron's new scam. GM - General Mayhem. Your stock broker sounds like an idiot... | |
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Duramax08
Oy, Pass It on.
join:2008-08-03
San Antonio, TX | ...... This makes me kind of mad because all i can get is dialup and I would love to have some kind of faster internet too. They are probably going to go over their existing areas that already have high speed internet. | |
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L337
Premium
join:2005-03-10
Chicago, IL | Re: ...... Have you ever heard of T-Mobile Internet Data line? | |
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Duramax08
Oy, Pass It on.
join:2008-08-03
San Antonio, TX | Re: ...... Yes and im planning to get it soon. I made a post on one of the forums about the speed but no one has told me nothing. | |
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KoolMoe
Aw Man
Premium
join:2001-02-14
Annapolis, MD
clubs: | Re: ...... So someone has told you something? | |
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| | | | LouisMI
join:2008-06-20
Tecumseh, MI | Re: ...... that would be, everyone has told him something, if no-one has told him nothing.
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mod_wastrel
join:2008-03-28 | One... Is he still on dial-up?
Two... How does he feel about the telegraph? | |
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cableties
Premium
join:2005-01-27
Levittown, PA | Re: One... What? (Static) Huh? (more static) I can't hear .... you... over these WWII-era oxidizing copper trunk lines.... | |
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mod_wastrel
join:2008-03-28 | Re: One... Qwest's motto: ".-- .... . -. .. -. -.. --- ..- -... - --..-- -.. --- -. --- - .... .. -. --. .-.-.-"
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| | | rip_sketches
join:2002-05-25
Dallas, GA | Re: One... "WHENINDOUBT, DONOTHING." | |
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hayabusa3303
Over 200 mph
Premium
join:2005-06-29
clubs: | Funny While he talks about faster speeds on cable with Docsis 3.0 but what good is it if they cap or meter it to death. Of course its going to be faster NO one is online. | |
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| majortom1029
join:2006-10-19
Lindenhurst, NY | Re: Funny Not all of them will do that. cablevision got rid of its caps. | |
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| MrSpock29
join:2008-02-09
Hammonton, NJ
| Re: Typical Wall Street Myopia said by Xela19115 :Wall Street cannot see beyond their next martini let alone a future of broadband. These analysts would love to have a situation where a company does not spend a cent on anything and just milk existing customers. That makes for really good balance sheets and certainly makes these analysts happy. Moffett favors cable stocks so it is no surprise that he wants telco alternatives to fail. When I had FIOS installed I was told by VZ techs that they have a hard time keeping up with new installs because people dropping cable like a bad dream. Comcast loses hundreds customers per day in Philadelphia area to FIOS. Every house on my block switched. Everyone I know who can get FIOS got it. That speaks for itself. Verizon's cost might be a bit higher now, but they will come down and in a longer run they'd be a far better position for the next-generation communications services. well, not all analysts are this (I'm trying to be polite) horrible, however, there is a saying:
"In a bull market, who needs analysts, in a bear market, they'll kill you".
He must love his rotary phone. | |
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| | SilentMan
join:2002-07-15
New York, NY
| Re: Typical Wall Street Myopia said by MrSpock29 :"In a bull market, who needs analysts, in a bear market, they'll kill you". He must love his rotary phone. And he must be quiet comfortable lighting his house with gas | |
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| | | MrSpock29
join:2008-02-09
Hammonton, NJ
| Re: Typical Wall Street Myopia said by SilentMan :said by MrSpock29 :"In a bull market, who needs analysts, in a bear market, they'll kill you". He must love his rotary phone. And he must be quiet comfortable lighting his house with gas lol, my first thought was, he would only be able to light it one time  | |
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| Kearnstd
Elf Wizard
join:2002-01-22
Mullica Hill, NJ
| the typical US investor cant see beyond the end of the current quarter. its why analysts and investors dont like major plant upgrades because they cause a big hit this quarter even if the gain is huge in 10 years.
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[65 Arcanist]Filan(High Elf) Zone: Broadband Reports | |
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| hottboiinnc
ME
join:2003-10-15
Toledo, OH
·buckeye cable
| Interesting you say everyone on your street dropped Comcast. Proof? Just because you seen VZ installing something doesnt mean they left Comcast for everything.
Also you can't say how many people Comcast is losing. But i'm sure the ones they are losing each day they're glad to get rid of.
And also techs are paid to say things like that. They're paid to promot their own product and make it seem like everyone is switching. Its their job! | |
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Xela19115
join:2000-10-06
Southampton, PA
 ·Verizon FIOS
 ·Sprint Mobile Broa..
·Comcast
| Re: Typical Wall Street Myopia said by hottboiinnc :Interesting you say everyone on your street dropped Comcast. Proof? Just because you seen VZ installing something doesnt mean they left Comcast for everything. Well, I make a statement that people on my block dropped Comcast to FIOS is due to the fact that every house on my block has an ONT and I talk to my neighbors and they tell me they have FIOS.
Also you can't say how many people Comcast is losing. But i'm sure the ones they are losing each day they're glad to get rid of. What makes you think that Comcast is glad to get rid off certain customers. I used to be a Comcast triple play customer with one of their top packages with HD DVR and 2 SD STBs, the Blast! HSI package as well as their phone service. I was paying almost $200/month for my service. A lot of people who drop Comcast are just like me, i.e. higher revenue customers. If Comcast is glad to lose customers like me then its VZ gain.
And also techs are paid to say things like that. They're paid to promot their own product and make it seem like everyone is switching. Its their job!
That's interesting. But where I live, almost everyone IS switching.
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xela19115 | |
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| backness
join:2005-07-08
K2P OW2 | Re: Analysts....shoot them like all the lawyers.. Gee and the phone companies have only been milking this copper for almost 100 years in some areas,
This guy is a donkey, the fiber is a sunk cost to be recouped over the next 100 years or at minimum 30. | |
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| | jmallory
join:2005-11-02
Clawson, MI
| Re: Analysts....shoot them like all the lawyers.. said by backness :Gee and the phone companies have only been milking this copper for almost 100 years in some areas, This guy is a donkey, the fiber is a sunk cost to be recouped over the next 100 years or at minimum 30. While that copper may be 100 years old. The CO that actually makes all that copper do something useful has changed a lot in the past 20 years.
I really don't understand some of the preoccupation which is probably one of the least exciting parts of a network. | |
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KrK
Heavy Artillery For The Little Guy
Premium
join:2000-01-17
Tulsa, OK | Thank God idiots like him don't make decisions.... Ban this idiot from using computers or cellphones or anything remotely advanced. He's obviously happy with the luddite philosophy. | |
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KrK
Heavy Artillery For The Little Guy
Premium
join:2000-01-17
Tulsa, OK | World's Biggest Douche.... ... and the winner is.....
Craig Moffett!
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danclan
join:2005-11-01
Midlothian, VA
·Verizon FIOS
| Re: World's Biggest Douche.... its these typical short sighted assessments that led the cable co's to the hybrid fiber coax plants in the first place. Comcast had the chance to convert to all fiber but didnt.
The biggest richest men think long term 5+ years. Fios and Verizon are primed for that time frame. As are ANY full FTTH providers.
Its only a matter of time before Comcast and others will have to deploy FTTH. They may come up with some magic bullet in the mean time but they are just biding time. | |
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| | dynodb
Premium,VIP
join:2004-04-21
Minneapolis, MN
| Re: World's Biggest Douche.... said by danclan :Its only a matter of time before Comcast and others will have to deploy FTTH. They may come up with some magic bullet in the mean time but they are just biding time. That may be true, but if so- letting someone else be the guinea pig and work out the bugs isn't necessarily a bad thing. The longer you wait, the lower the deployment costs become (as Verizon has witnessed). Waiting until there's a high demand also decreases the time it takes to get a return on your investment.
Remember- about 75% of people who could get FiOS... don't.
Who's smarter- the one who rushed out and installed Windows Vista on the day it was released, or the one who waited a bit to see how it worked out? | |
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See 6 replies to this post |
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| | majortom1029
join:2006-10-19
Lindenhurst, NY
| I think your very misinformed about the capacity of hfc. The docsis specs state about 270mbps can be done via docsis 3 . So that gives cable companies a lot of headroom for now. YEs eventuallly they will have to switch but by the time they have to they will have even more fiber run and will just have to replace the last mile.
Heck cisco has equipment now that can do both ftth and docsis 3. Cable companies are in a better position then you think. | |
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RARPSL
join:1999-12-08
Suffern, NY
| Re: World's Biggest Douche.... said by majortom1029 :I think your very misinformed about the capacity of hfc. The docsis specs state about 270mbps can be done via docsis 3 . So that gives cable companies a lot of headroom for now. So long as each DOCSIS 3.0 customer has their own node. Once you place more than one customer on the node, you must share that 270mps and the average speed goes down. With FIOS, you have a DEDICATED connection to the CO and thus you get full "Last Mile" speeds and the choke point is in the CO which has a much larger pipe to share with the customers/users (ie: You do not get slowed down by someone who is sharing your node's bandwidth. | |
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| | | | majortom1029
join:2006-10-19
Lindenhurst, NY
| Re: World's Biggest Douche....Also this is what i am getting with optimum online boost.
So when cablevision goes docsis 3 i think up 270 (wont reach that for a while) cablevision atleast would compete pretty well with fios and they have been up till this point.
Verizons network needed an upgrade more then cables network does. The cable companies will be able to compete with fios. Offer similiar speeds at a cheaper price.Yes they will eventually go all fiber but it will be easier for the cable companies to do that. | |
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| | alchav
join:2002-05-17
Palm Desert, CA
| said by danclan :its these typical short sighted assessments that led the cable co's to the hybrid fiber coax plants in the first place. Comcast had the chance to convert to all fiber but didn't. The biggest richest men think long term 5+ years. Fios and Verizon are primed for that time frame. As are ANY full FTTH providers. Its only a matter of time before Comcast and others will have to deploy FTTH. They may come up with some magic bullet in the mean time but they are just biding time. You are absolutely right, but there is no "Magic Bullet." FTTH is the future, and I said this a long time ago, Verizon is the clear winner. It might cost them money now, but in the long run Verizon will be way ahead of who ever is in second place. Even AT&T's U-Verse is having trouble right now. If these Companies don't wake up soon most will fail and never catch up. | |
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Nightshade
sic semper tyrannis
Premium
join:2002-05-26
Salem, OR | Re: World's Biggest Douche.... The perfect picture to throw darts at.
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True Happiness Must Come From Within | |
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| | rifleman69
join:2006-04-12
Beaverton, OR
·Verizon FIOS
| said by Mchart :said by KrK :... and the winner is..... Craig Moffett! Yeah, he looks pretty douche-i-fied. The hair, the fake smile, and the expensive suit that doesn't seem to fit. Douche'. What a douche! | |
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| 
Doctor Four
My other vehicle is a TARDIS
Premium
join:2000-09-05
Dallas, TX
edit:
August 19th, @10:31PM
| This fool should join Senator Ted "Tubes" Stevens.
They'd make an excellent comedy team (albeit an unwitting one). | |
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KrK
Heavy Artillery For The Little Guy
Premium
join:2000-01-17
Tulsa, OK | Wait... we have a challenger!
This is getting tough! | |
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mobbo
join:2005-04-13
Denton, TX | Will be buying Verizon stock now. Thanks, Craig, for the stock tip. I will be sure to buy stock in a company that has a product people will MOVE HOUSES for and is future proof. | |
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| jmallory
join:2005-11-02
Clawson, MI
| Re: To young to remember Cable's woes in the mid 90's. I don't know if I would use the term "cleaned their clocks" I was on a small street of 20 homes and I know I was the only one that switched to DBS service in the mid 90s.
1. The costs of connecting two TV sets (and two was the limit as multiswitches hadn't been put on the market yet) was close to $1500 for the good Sony system (the RCAs were crap at that point). We still had to keep basic cable for some of the other sets in the house (and to get locals)
2. Once the multiswitches were available..we could drop cable completely (once Spot Beams were deployed and we could get the local channels) but it was still rather expensive ($300) to hook up each additional TV (and we were still limited to 4 at the time but that was OK, we had 4 sets).
But back then, DBS service was a high-end product it wasn't necessarily sold to be a replacement for people with Basic cable but did represent some value to people who were into movies and sports and could live with some of the limitations early on. Actually, I think DirecTV and Dish would do well to go back to this mode of operation instead of trying to be "Cable Companies in the Sky" but that is another post.
So in my middle-class neighborhood, DBS had a penetration rate of 1 in 20. Actually when Americast came through the neighborhood they had much better luck as they got half the neighborhood to switch as it was standard cable service. | |
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no_one
@QWEST.NET
| Knows nothing He just wants to outsource it to China. It would be cheaper and pure profit.
Now to figure out how to do that?
He probably went to some high class university. Made friends with in crowd. Has no dreams for anyone but himself. Makes nothing, destroys stuff if it makes him money. Profit is the only priority of the day. Once one industry is destroyed always the next to play with. Doesn't have to know anything about them or their customers.
All he needs is an expensive suit. | |
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Video Guy
@verizon.net
| ROIC and Let's Play "Hide the Pea with Expenses!" Keep in mind that Moffitt's argument is not whether FiOS was a good idea for customers (especially the tech-loving ones on forums like this). Clearly, it was/is. (I have it and like it.) He's arguing that using the cold calculating method of return on invested capital, FiOS was not the highest and best use of Verizon's money.
If you believe Moffitt's calculations are correct, Verizon will have lots of customers loving their fast fiber service (and hating their customer service and billing?), but Verizon will be worth *less* in terms of overall enterprise value (they move $23 Billion into capex and only $17 Billion into the present value of the return on that investment). What's the highest and best use of the investable dollars? Wireless and business services.
The most insightful point made in either the article or the blog was the following:
"Verizon is replacing expenses, which show up on its quarterly profit and loss statements, with capital spending, which appears on its balance sheet." from the Blog (»bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/1···pay-off/).
This means they are converting things that usually get expensed as operating expenses into capital expenses, which artificially pumps up net income compared to prior periods.
If you unwind all that capitalization pro forma you would see a much, much different cash flow picture for Verizon and their stock would probably be lower.
Illegal? No. The financial treatments are probably just fine under GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles). But the mirage is there, nonetheless. People naturally compare performance over time and most casual investors and even some analysts gloss those kinds of details. And things look rosier than they really are if you just look at the numbers as stated in their audited financials. A smart analyst unwinds those differences between periods and takes another look.
In the end, Verizon will be fine. Wireless and Business revenues will hide many sins (including a labor liability that is and will continue to hang around their necks).
AT&T and Echostar? They need to worry. A lot. | |
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PGHammer
join:2003-06-09
Accokeek, MD
clubs:
·Comcast
| Re: ROIC and Let's Play "Hide the Pea with Expenses!" said by Video Guy :Keep in mind that Moffitt's argument is not whether FiOS was a good idea for customers (especially the tech-loving ones on forums like this). Clearly, it was/is. (I have it and like it.) He's arguing that using the cold calculating method of return on invested capital, FiOS was not the highest and best use of Verizon's money. If you believe Moffitt's calculations are correct, Verizon will have lots of customers loving their fast fiber service (and hating their customer service and billing?), but Verizon will be worth *less* in terms of overall enterprise value (they move $23 Billion into capex and only $17 Billion into the present value of the return on that investment). What's the highest and best use of the investable dollars? Wireless and business services. The most insightful point made in either the article or the blog was the following: "Verizon is replacing expenses, which show up on its quarterly profit and loss statements, with capital spending, which appears on its balance sheet." from the Blog (» bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/1···pay-off/). This means they are converting things that usually get expensed as operating expenses into capital expenses, which artificially pumps up net income compared to prior periods. If you unwind all that capitalization pro forma you would see a much, much different cash flow picture for Verizon and their stock would probably be lower. Illegal? No. The financial treatments are probably just fine under GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles). But the mirage is there, nonetheless. People naturally compare performance over time and most casual investors and even some analysts gloss those kinds of details. And things look rosier than they really are if you just look at the numbers as stated in their audited financials. A smart analyst unwinds those differences between periods and takes another look. In the end, Verizon will be fine. Wireless and Business revenues will hide many sins (including a labor liability that is and will continue to hang around their necks). AT&T and Echostar? They need to worry. A lot. Yes; they do need to worry. Moffitt's thinking is very traditionally bearish; he is generally only in favor of *like-for-like* replacement (as the copper plant ages, replace it with more copper), as opposed to what VZ is doing (replace labor-intensive copper with much less labor-intensive fiber, saving on longer-term M&R costs despite the huge immediate capex penalties). Moffitt is also thinking that VZ won't be able to reduce their labor costs even as the amount of copper in VZ's footprint drops (by and large, the leadership of the CWA and IBEW is not happy with VZ as the copper footprint drops; that unhappiness is largely *because* of the validity of VZ's reasons for replacing copper with fiber)
While it may seem like a better idea to have invested the money in wireless and business services, a good portion of the FTTP/FTTH capex hit *directly* impacts business services, not residential services; however, the changes in business services aren't very obvious, and most won't take place until FTTP/FTTH gets further along in deploment in the urban areas where most businesses lie. Also, the structure of VZW itself limits how much VZ can invest directly in wireless (VZ did offer to by that portion of VZW they didn't own; however, Vodaphone plc said no). Moffitt would therefore have been more friendly toward seeing that money paid directly as dividends while VZ instead follows the AT&T model.
That is *precisely* the difference VZ and SBC as RBOCs (remember, it is SBC that is at the core of what is now AT&T). VZ thinks longer-term, while SBC is more *traditional*. | |
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Video Guy
@verizon.net
| Re: ROIC and Let's Play "Hide the Pea with Expenses!" Good point about the VZW-Vodaphone complication. That limits them somewhat.
To your point about FiOS for SMB, I have been waiting for that shoe to drop for a while now. There is something on their web site about FiOS for Medium business. I don't know if Moffitt's model shows that upside. Also not sure if he takes into account what will happen with equipment prices if/when other telcos jump in and start ordering equipment at scale, which should lower unit costs. | |
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PGHammer
join:2003-06-09
Accokeek, MD
clubs:
·Comcast
| Re: ROIC and Let's Play "Hide the Pea with Expenses!" VZ *has* to have a care about getting into SMB, considering that the cable companies (Comcast in particular) are going full-tilt after those customers (the SMB market has also traditionally been where VZ had been selling Centrex and where UUnet and MCI had been selling data services; that area now operates under the Verizon Business imprint) not to mention enterprise markets (also under VZB). I'm actually surprised that VZB hasn't formed a JV with data-service providers (such as Bloomberg Business Information, LP) concerning reselling of Bloomberg data services to enterprise/SMB and even residential customers via FiOS. | |
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russotto
join:2000-10-05
Collegeville, PA | If you want a Return On Investment... ...you need to make an investment. Qwest essentially hasn't. Back in the bad old days, certainly, you could run athe phone company that way. Negligible growth, flat but basically guaranteed returns. That world is gone. | |
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mobbo
join:2005-04-13
Denton, TX | Examples... of companies that didn't adapt and make investments to "future-proof":
AOL
Earthlink
Netzero
Insert Huge 1990's dial-up company here | |
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| hottboiinnc
ME
join:2003-10-15
Toledo, OH
·buckeye cable
| Re: a Quest buyout? That'll be the day Qwest is more rural than any of the ILECs. VZ could only rebuild the major cities as anything else would be too costly. but if that was the case they would have already done it. Instead they'll only keep their over build in Texas and stay within their own foot print. | |
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tmc8080
join:2004-04-24
Floral Park, NY
| without merit. The New York Times has no real credibility anymore (editorial or reporting). They do gangbusters in advertising... if you like that sort of thing. Do you own research before you reach conclusions about the state of each telco or cable provider (before you try enter into a discussion about the merits of any company's competitiveness in their footprint).
That said, MOST of us as BBR members know who's at the top & bottom of the industry and why. Telecom is a capital intensive business. Every several decades you have to upgrade your infrastructure either piecemeal or all a |
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Craig Moffett: Network Upgrades Are For Ninnies
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Analysts....shoot them like all the lawyers..
