Cable To Grab 75% Of New Subs In 2009While America leads the world in broadband revenues... ( old news - 02:26PM Tuesday Jan 06 2009) tags: business · stats · worldAccording to a new report by Pike and Fisher, 2009 will see a 12% decline in subscriber growth. That's in part because the broadband market was already slowing down, but it's also thanks to the troubled economy and slow home sales (no new homes, no new connections). Interestingly, Pike claims cable will gobble up 75% of all new customer additions next year, due to slower DSL speeds and limited deployment of FiOS and U-Verse. The report does however insist that government involvement in the sector could save the day: "Government initiatives, such as tax incentives and loan guarantees to help expand broadband infrastructure into underserved areas, could enable service providers to bolster their customer counts," Sleek said. "In addition, policy-makers are likely to support training and education programs aimed at increasing customer adoption of broadband. These steps could offset what will be an inevitable slowdown in subscriber growth." That of course assumes that any new plans developed will be good ones, and that Uncle Sam won't simply throw money at major carriers and hope for the best. In a second report issued this week, Pyramid Research puts things in perspective, noting that the United States may have shortcomings when it comes to broadband penetration, price and speed, but leads the world in broadband revenues. The US generated more than $32 billion in broadband revenues in 2008, considerably more than second-place Japan, which generated $23 billion. We're number one. Sort of.
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Pizz
Hi
join:2000-10-27
Astoria, NY | I love.. To pay top dollar for an inferior product. I guess it's the american way! | |
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dadkins
Can you do Blu?
Premium,MVM
join:2003-09-26
Hercules, CA
 ·Comcast
1 edit | Re: I love.. said by Pizz  :To pay top dollar for an inferior product. I guess it's the american way! Didn't read it, did you?
"... cable will gobble up 75% of all new customer additions next year, due to slower DSL speeds and limited deployment of FiOS and U-Verse."
Yeah, you let me know when people can subscribe to something that doesn't exist!
Cable is on the pole(or in the ground), DSL is too slow, FiOS and Uverse are nowhere to be seen... What will you do?
DUH! Get cable!
No blistering symmetrical fiber available?
Well, not alot you or I can do about it, is there?
Move to Santa Clara, CA... 
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Think outside the Fox... Opera | |
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S_engineer
join:2007-05-16
Chicago, IL
·Comcast
| Re: I love.. Your right about that...I live on the perimeter of DSL land, not that I'd want it, but its not an option. So the choice is WOW, Comcrap, or dial-up. And in light of Comcraps new traffic control methods, I'm now considering unplugging. I'm way to impatient for dial up... maybe I'll just see if Mark Goldstein still has his high speed NetZero! 
--
"For duty and humanity!"
- Moe Larry and Curly (MEN IN BLACK, 1934)...These are the guys we have in Congress | |
| | | | fiberguy
My views are my own.
Premium
join:2005-05-20
| Re: I love.. Enjoy!
I love those that rant on principle claiming they'd move to dial up over any kind of broadband.. I mean, come on.. no one really does that no matter what.
I'd rather pay $40 a month for broadband internet with a generous, the MOST generous, caps of all players (even your DSL that you can't get, is talking about implementing) than take a dial up service for even $10. I'd rather roll up my $10 bill and smoke it than give it to a dial up carrier. 
I know people are bitching about the caps and traffic management now.. however right or justified it may be to those doing it, I think it's premature and time to wait and see. Just like claiming to go dial up, people claim that they are being hurt - while the truth is many don't have a clue if they are anywhere near affected.
When change comes in when the masses notice.. not the few rebel and so-called warriors. (those here at this site) As soon as the masses are affected, change comes.. and even not influenced by the masses, the short-falls in the system are usually worked out anywhere and those management practices are usually lifted anyway.
Basically.. chill for a while becuase I don't think it's as bad for Comcast land as people want it to be.. where I DO feel sorry is AT&T, TWC, and Frontier people. Now THAT is a mess. | |
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S_engineer
join:2007-05-16
Chicago, IL
·Comcast
| Re: I love.. Well you're right about the dial up dilemma. Nobody that enjoys HSI would leap back into the stone age of dial up, it's too impractical in this day and age. However, the monthly erosion of services coupled with the implementation of caps, traffic management tools, and higher prices are now making me question just how much I require these services.
What the heck was the purpose of enticing everyone with DOCSIS 3 if the subscriber can't use it to its fullest potential. Wow, I can reach the "best effort" faster?
The carriers have learned from our government how to implement policies under the premise of a false crisis (bandwidth crisis). It's all bullsh*t geared towards putting the subscriber on metered billing.
Its just a matter of time.
--
"For duty and humanity!"
- Moe Larry and Curly (MEN IN BLACK, 1934)...These are the guys we have in Congress | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | fiberguy
My views are my own.
Premium
join:2005-05-20
| Re: I love.. ...you don't think it has ANYTHING to do with the fight of the path of least resistance do you? ie: those few that snub their nose in the air calling "it's mine and I'll use it how I want" attitudes. Those few people cause a lot of problems for the rest of is.
People are pushing their hands and they have no choice but to have protections in place to deal with it.. and if not for now, for later as well. Technology and upgrades can't keep up with bandwidth hogs and sites and purposes that feed them (p2p)..
So sorry, I disagree. For MANY people that complain about the day time or evening slow downs, you should be happy that they are increasing the protections. And, to say "upgrade your service".. well, if anyone knows anything cable the cable environment.. no matter how much you upgrade, someone's going to cause issues. It's a shared medium that can be abused. And FURTHER, nationwide upgrades don't happen over night when you're talking about rebuilding plant.. it's easier to update a data center with some hardware to put a fix in place until they can play catch up.
You guys also have this notion that they sit back and do nothing every day, which is also just plain wrong. It's not you going to the store and buying a faster wireless router and plugging it in. It's not like buying a whole new computer or faster NIC. People think that they should upgrade their networks every year or something.. what you don't realize is that there is work ongoing all the time to advance their networks. And, for some who think that they should just rebuild their entire feeder system.. I won't even go there.
All this "I want I want I want" equals just as much greed as what people throw back the way of the provider.. it takes time. I think that going from up to 1.5 to the 30 and 50 meg speeds we're starting to see today in just 8 years is pretty damn good if you ask me.
And, you've yet to be screwed.. you're getting a service for about the same price you've always paid (average and majority consumer) so being screwed becuase they're not jumping to give you fiber over night is absurd* (*the most common complaint) | |
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S_engineer
join:2007-05-16
Chicago, IL
·Comcast
| Re: I love.. Wait a second, since when is using what your paying for a point of contention. The excuse these companies are using to implement these traffic management systems is "the bandwidth hogs are using too much", and you've fallen hook line and sinker. First of all, (at the time) unlimited plans mean...pay attention to the keyword here...UNLIMITED.
In a rush to become bigger, these companies oversold already taxed networks. Now to placate the shareholders, the carriers have to figure out a way to incrementally upgrade because they can't spend whats necessary to upgrade their networks to meet the demand of an unlimited network.
In come the excuses...blame the bandwidth hogs...blame the lack of bandwidth, and best of all is that is mostly the p2p networks.
This is not an argument about "I want I want I want" , rather it's always an argument about "I want whats spelled out in my contract". Plus, what about the millions of dollars in tax incentives that were given to carriers from then President Clinton for the purpose of HSI?
Did you label them as greedy too because they "wanted it"?
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"When I was in junior high school, the teachers voted me the student most likely to end up in the electric chair."---Sylvestor Stallone | |
| | | 
en102
Canadian, eh?
join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA
·RoadRunner Cable
 ·DSL EXTREME
| said by dadkins :said by Pizz :To pay top dollar for an inferior product. I guess it's the american way! Didn't read it, did you? "... cable will gobble up 75% of all new customer additions next year, due to slower DSL speeds and limited deployment of FiOS and U-Verse." Yeah, you let me know when people can subscribe to something that doesn't exist! Cable is on the pole(or in the ground), DSL is too slow, FiOS and Uverse are nowhere to be seen... What will you do? DUH! Get cable! No blistering symmetrical fiber available? Well, not alot you or I can do about it, is there? Move to Santa Clara, CA... I agree for the most part.
Santa Clarita:
ADSL: 3-6Mbps (I qualify for 3Mbps) - $40/month w/o phone service. $25/month with POTS packages (read $80/month after POTS package)
Uverse: 1.5-18Mbps - $55 month for standalone 10Mbps (I think is the minimum standalone). $90/month for a triple play including VoIP (which is still non existent in SoCal  ) which would mean add another $25/month between items not included and taxes/unfees.
FiOS: Santa Clarita is an AT&T exlusive valley - no VZ here
Cable: TWC - $47/month for HSI (6-10Mbps) standalone 
If I was to go for the absolute bottom pricing - it would be ADSL. However, since I need phone service too, Cable bundle is less expensive than the AT&T bundle. | |
| | Corydon
Cultivant son jardin
Premium
join:2008-02-18
Denver, CO
clubs:
·Comcast
| Actually, the $32 billion figure is aggregated across 78.5 million subscribers, working out to an average of $407.64 per subscriber per year.
By contrast (using figures from the article) the average per subscriber cost in Japan is $759.08 per year and in Germany is $472.10 per year. China came in by far the cheapest per subscriber-year at $96.46.
In other words, among the three developed nations on the list, the US had the best prices overall.
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"2 Strangers + 1 20 minute ceremony + $50 + 10 shots of tequila = Holy Matrimony and 1st Class Protections Under the Law… now that’s crazy!" | |
| SilverSurfer
join:2007-08-19
| Additionally 2009 will see a 12% decline in subscriber growth. That's in part because the broadband market was already slowing down, but it's also thanks to the troubled economy and slow home sales (no new homes, no new connections). I might also add that those who rent find units more often than not that already come cable-ready for HSI. Case in point: My own rental unit already had the wiring in place by the local cable monopoly. I have considered several times getting DSL instead, however, that would entail a laundry list of inconvenience to me including:
(1) Taking time out of work to sit and wait for the DSL provider to show up and split the line into voice and data;
(2) Waiting on the local telco monopoly to provision the line, which, as previously experienced elsewhere, took 30-45 days.
Cable has many what some consider "unfair" advantages over DSL in more ways than just home ownership sales. | |
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funchords
Hello
Premium,MVM
join:2001-03-11
Washington, DC
·Verizon Online DSL
 ·Skype
| Re: Additionally said by SilverSurfer :Case in point: My own rental unit already had the wiring in place by the local cable monopoly. I have considered several times getting DSL instead, however, that would entail a laundry list of inconvenience to me including: (1) Taking time out of work to sit and wait for the DSL provider to show up and split the line into voice and data; (2) Waiting on the local telco monopoly to provision the line, which, as previously experienced elsewhere, took 30-45 days. Cable has many what some consider "unfair" advantages over DSL in more ways than just home ownership sales. This is true but it is also somethings Telcos can and ought to fix.
They have a real "can't do" attitude! | |
| | | nasadude
join:2001-10-05
Rockville, MD
·Comcast
1 edit | Re: Additionally said by funchords :... They have a real "can't do" attitude! in my opinion, it's not the ILECs have a "can't do" attitude, it's they have a "been sitting around on their fat phone and DSL monopoly @ssess for too long and don't know how to compete anymore" attitude.
they were fat, dumb and happy after they killed all the clecs and line sharing died, then cable started real broadband deployment, followed by digital voice, while the telcos sat around until they got hit by the cable truck.
and I'm still not sure they get it. | |
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ptrowski
Got Helix?
Premium
join:2005-03-14
Putnam, CT
clubs: | Re: Additionally Exactly. With AT&T it all came in a nice little self install box. | |
| | | | RadioDoc
58ef2c0
Premium,ExMod 2000-03
join:2000-05-11 | Re: Additionally Actually, anyone too stupid to do a self-install in today's market probably shouldn't have a computer anyway.
--
Toolmaster of La Grange. | |
| | | | | SilverSurfer
join:2007-08-19
| Re: Additionally said by RadioDoc :Actually, anyone too stupid to do a self-install in today's market probably shouldn't have a computer anyway. I see, so essentially you are assuming that I am not able to do a self-install and you obliquely calling me stupid. You really should have clicked on the I do not wish to post link before you published this little nugget of your "wisdom." | |
| | | | | | RadioDoc
58ef2c0
Premium,ExMod 2000-03
join:2000-05-11
·AT&T Midwest
| Re: Additionally said by SilverSurfer :said by RadioDoc :Actually, anyone too stupid to do a self-install in today's market probably shouldn't have a computer anyway. I see, so essentially you are assuming that I am not able to do a self-install and you obliquely calling me stupid. You really should have clicked on the I do not wish to post link before you published this little nugget of your "wisdom." Oddly enough, the only one applying the 'stupid' label to you is, well, you. But nice try.
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Toolmaster of La Grange. | |
| | | | | | | SilverSurfer
join:2007-08-19
| Re: Additionally said by RadioDoc :Oddly enough, the only one applying the 'stupid' label to you is, well, you. But nice try. LMAO. "Nice try" at what? You're entitled to your opinion as I am to mine. | |
| | | | | | | | | | | RadioDoc
58ef2c0
Premium,ExMod 2000-03
join:2000-05-11 | Re: Additionally That was pretty much the norm awhile back but (at least here in AT&T territory) self-install is very much plug and play now.
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Toolmaster of La Grange. | |
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funchords
Hello
Premium,MVM
join:2001-03-11
Washington, DC | Re: Additionally Yeah, well my disasters were April and November of 2008.
Verizon's got a great network but terrible back-office and support systems. | |
| | | | hottboiinnc
ME
join:2003-10-15
Cleveland, OH | some companies in Ohio do not provide this. It's called a truck roll no matter what and still wait for everything. | |
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ptrowski
Got Helix?
Premium
join:2005-03-14
Putnam, CT
clubs: | Re: Additionally Same here for the cable company locally. No self install, $75 charge. | |
| | | | | | hottboiinnc
ME
join:2003-10-15
Cleveland, OH
·Time Warner Cable
·buckeye cable
| Re: Additionally And i forgot our cable company does the same thing. But when they do it they actually run a new HSI line from the tap to the house (at least they were going to do that for me), replaced the grounding block and a few other things. So couldn't complain about the install charge which is $20.00 | |
| | Kearnstd
Elf Wizard
Premium
join:2002-01-22
Mullica Hill, NJ
| what i want to know is why cant DSL just do the buy modem and call it in format like cable. when i first got comcast it took me longer to get to circuit city and back then it did to get HSI on the account and the modem provisioned. knew someone with DSL it tool 30days from the time they ordered until it was turned on.
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[65 Arcanist]Filan(High Elf) Zone: Broadband Reports | |
| | | RadioDoc
58ef2c0
Premium,ExMod 2000-03
join:2000-05-11 | Re: Additionally That is pretty much how it works now.
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Toolmaster of La Grange. | |
| 
baineschile
2600
Premium
join:2008-05-10
Sterling Heights, MI
·Comcast
·magicjack.com
 ·Verizon Wireless B..
1 edit | Government intervention?? Cmon, we arent socialists. The government cant control everything. People that live in densly populated areas usually have a wide variety of ISPs to choose from. If you dont like the hustle and bustle of city live, and move to a rural area, you have to give a few things up (public transportation, plowed roads, etc). One of those things, is a quality ISP.
Japan, S Korea, and a few other countries names have a ton of competition because most people live in a few areas, which geographically cant compare the USA. | |
| | | | | EPS
join:2008-02-13
Hingham, MA | Re: Government intervention?? The problem is overconsolidation in the industry... all the major companies cover both rural areas and urban areas, and want a single solution for both areas. | |
| | | | RadioDoc
58ef2c0
Premium,ExMod 2000-03
join:2000-05-11
·AT&T Midwest
| Re: Government intervention?? The "problem" is that the bulk of the potential market is happy surfing, doing email and trading pictures at a decent price point and doesn't really give a squat about whether the US is ahead or behind any other country in some pundit-contrived broadband race. I would bet the huge majority don't even know what "speed" they pay for.
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Toolmaster of La Grange. | |
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baineschile
2600
Premium
join:2008-05-10
Sterling Heights, MI | Name one city with 50,000+ people that has ONLY ONE ISP | |
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See 6 replies to this post | |
| | fiberguy
My views are my own.
Premium
join:2005-05-20 | Speeds are slow huh? ... for what?
Serious question.. what are you doing that needs more speed than what you have?
I WILL agree with you that DSL is a POS technology that largely NEEDS a douche ... | |
| Gilitar
join:2000-11-20
Mobile, AL
1 edit | Speed is a killer The telcos better get their act together. I'm paying $37.95 for 1.5/256 stand alone dsl. This is not a good value. If cable was an option here I would be gone. | |
| | elray
join:2000-12-16
Santa Monica, CA
·SONIC.NET
·RoadRunner Cable
·Verizon Online DSL
| Re: Speed is a killer said by Gilitar :The telcos better get their act together. I'm paying $37.95 for 1.5/256 stand alone dsl. This is not a good value. If cable was an option here I would be gone. We have the choice you seek.
Cable charges $36.95 for 1.5/384. Yep, you save a buck.
So much for "good value". | |
| 
Rick
Premium,MVM
join:2001-02-06
Waterbury, CT
clubs: 
| One can only wonder what the telco industry will look like in 5 years time.
With 75% of New subs going to the cable operators and years of having their core dsl and land line businesses moving in massive numbers to the likes of Comcast and Time Warner..
what exactly do you have left?
Wireless..Ok. I'll buy that. But that's just a far cry from having lost so much of their core businesses and trying to have competed in a new world of triple play bundles and pricing.
It remains to be seen whether they'll really make any inroads into the tv business. I have serious doubts whether they will because of a couple factors.
First..it's amazingly difficult to move into another companies business like that where there has been such dominance for decades and even in the best of times..it's difficult to do. And that includes the cable co's moving into the phone business. But..they have managed to do it because of the improved quality of digital service and the pricing that bundles offer. It really is the perfect storm that the telcos are facing in that regard.
The big question is..can the telco's duplicate that when it comes to acquiring TV business? I'm not talking about their acquiring the percentage of customers who can't wait to switch or try something new. I'm talking about the masses.
The tens of millions who are so ingrained into their service and what it provides them. AT&T under their various other corporate subsidiaries DID try that before with Americast and other services..that came and went. Can they do it now with what many would argue to be an inferior network than they even had with that service?
It's going to be an amazingly difficult challenge. And, it will be further compounded by one other fact. How will they be able to really compete on price? If you're a company losing all those customers and spending big bucks on a new network..there's nothing synonymous with being able to undercut the established competition. At best..it will be a huge struggle.
Sanford Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett is really the one calling this whole scenario for what it is which is very difficult times lay ahead for the telco's. And it's very difficult to see what can change this in their favor.
I've also come to the conclusion that while it's certainly not technologically superior..AT&T probably does have the right strategy with Uverse versus Verizon and their fios rollout. At least in the shorter term.
These companies are going through nuclear meltdowns when it comes to their core businesses of dsl and landlines.
Picture yourself calling Verizon these days. You hear about this great product called fios. For many people..it may as well be called vaporware because they just can't get it.
And won't be getting it for years to come.
Who's landlines then become more at risk? Who's DSL customers have nowhere to flee to..except to the cable competition?
At the very least AT&T will have an upgrade path there sooner for more people. A chance to say here's 10Mb..to 18Mb hsi service with Uverse. And even if it's still not available for a huge number of people..they can get it to them quicker before the final titanic telco plunge begins to take shape.
The big problem with the service though is even if it's able to be offered..will people say yes in large enough numbers? What the service is lacking is the technological aspect of it as well as any real catalyst for people to go with it. In large enough numbers anyway.
Tough times ahead for the telcos for sure. The next few years will be very ugly in terms of how this industry is reshaped. This doesn't mean that I think it's a lay down given for the cable co's either. Because it's not.
But it's definitely their game to lose. And one way to do just that will be to ignore a very quick docsis 3.0 rollout and take a wait and see attitude. Any cable co. who wants to win needs to be doing that right now...with all due speed. But..assuming that happens..I think we've entered a whole new ERA for a long time to come.
The Rise of the Machines...Comcast and Time Warner.
Their time has come.
--
The Coyote captured the RR! Roadrunner Rick is now Comcastic! | |
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See 7 replies to this post | |
Eat Me
join:2002-09-25
Sussex, NJ | Telcos need to dump copper Cable is eating their lunch. They need to dump the copper and put fiber in its place. Cable can currently offer faster speeds because it isn't limited by twisted pair unshielded wires. | |
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See 6 replies to this post | |
martini161
join:2008-08-26 | lucky me all i can say is:
I 3 FiOS | |
| 
james
join:2001-02-26
antarctica
| decline in growth "2009 will see a 12% decline in subscriber growth."
Ohhh nooo! And here are other companies worrying about only doing 88% of the income they got last year, but these poor folks? They're going to have to make do with only 110% of the money they had last year. Poor babies! | |
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