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story category Piracy Beating Legit Video
8% to 2% in third quarter of '06
(old news - 06:40PM Tuesday Dec 26 2006)
tags: Video · Fileswapping · stats · content
According to the NPD Group, 8 percent (six million households) downloaded at least one digital video file (10MB or larger) for free from a P2P service during Q3 '06. In contrast, 2 percent of U.S. households (1.2 million) actually paid for a video download from an online download store. Of those p2p video downloads, 60 percent were adult-film content, 20 percent were TV shows and 5 percent were mainstream films.

Related:
  1. 16 Million Americans Pirated A Film Last Month
  2. NBC Wants Piracy Filters on Home Network Hardware?
  3. NBC's Hulu Private Beta Goes Live
  4. AT&T Piracy Filters Tread Dangerous Ground
  5. Xvid and DivX on PS3, 360?
  6. Americans are More Wired at End of Year than Beginning
  7. Microsoft: Teens Ain't Too Bright About Piracy
  8. TorrentSpy Calls It Quits
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thender
Glamour Profession
Premium
join:2004-05-16
Staten Island, NY


edit:
December 26th, @07:12PM

The reasons, let's list!

a) Selection. The chances of an old obscure movie being on one of these services vs emule is so tilted in emule's favor, because everyone gets to contribute, not just a few people who think they may have gotten every movie people will care about.

b) Choice. Do I want a 720p x264 for the HDTV? Do I want a moderate sized file at 960x544? Do I want a lower quality one for a normal TV or a portable at 624x352, or cross compatibility across devices that can't handle?

Do I want the original DVD? Do I want a DVD shrunk with CCE? Do I want a 1 CD xvid, or a 2 CD xvid of that movie?

c) Codec. x264 and xvid are better than DivX and whatever else they'll be using. I'm sure they'll encode using the worst settings regardless of what codec they use anyway.

Right now, the standard for buying music is 128k WMA or AAC. At least eMusic has it right with --alt-preset standard MP3s. If they encode video as well as they encode audio, it'll be awful. 128k isn't bad, it's sampling quality. I don't pay for samples.

If I want to buy from the iTunes music store, I want a choice. Do I want AAC, do I want FLAC, do I want MP3, do I want Vorbis? This issue hasn't even been addressed in the music market, much less the video one.

d) Freedom. DRM? No DRM. Am I going to replace my Cowon A2 that cost $330 at time of purchase with something else, that's probably worse, so I can play their video? Hell no!

DRM locks you into using only certain players, with certain formats. It's so easy for companies to abuse, it nearly destroys free market.. imagine if there were more major chip makers than intel and AMD, say ten, and each one had a different PSU standard. ATX, CTX, JTX. Imagine it changes over time for each chip maker. That's kind of like the current state of DRM.

e) Price. Downloadable video costs almost as much as the original, why the hell do I want to pay as much for a compressed file as I can for the original?

People are willing to pay - see giganews, UNS, newshosting. See people upgrading from 768/128 $17/month DSL to $45/month cable, or better DSL, or fiber. See the average consumer buying 750 GB drives because he ran out of space on his 500. The issue isn't in the price. Overall, it's freedom. It's "I don't want you controlling content I pay for." I want a choice in what I pay for, and that's what the content cartels either get but don't want to admit, or are dumb enough to not get. Either way, it's killing them.

--
The Problem With Music.


Our Rationale


Time to rewrite the DMCA.
lawrence171
Evilly Yours - Evilness

join:2001-12-24
Canada
·Acanac Inc.

Re: The reasons, let's list!

There are only several significant DRM-players in the market.

Digital Right Management is actually quite important, but its merely being abused.

If history tells us anything, it will take approximately 50 years for that to change.
--
What I used to be I no longer am... God, why can't you freeze time for my sake?

thender
Glamour Profession
Premium
join:2004-05-16
Staten Island, NY


edit:
December 26th, @06:58PM

Re: The reasons, let's list!

said by lawrence171 See Profile :

There are only several significant DRM-players in the market.

Digital Right Management is actually quite important, but its merely being abused.

If history tells us anything, it will take approximately 50 years for that to change.
DRM isn't important at all.

There will always a different version of that file on usenet, or P2P. Name a single DRMed piece of media on iTunes that isn't on a P2P network or usenet already, in equal or better quality.

If the file is already available on these networks, then there is no point to DRM. DRM is there to prevent the file from being copied, but if there are better copies of the file out there without DRM already, on the networks that DRM is supposed to avoid them going to, then why bother with it? It's a waste of money and it only bothers people.

DRM is the equivalent of closing the front door of the apartment complex and leaving the backdoor open. It doesn't keep people from getting in, it just annoys people who want to get home.
--
The Problem With Music.


Our Rationale


Time to rewrite the DMCA.

major marco
Res Firma Mitescere Nescit
Premium
join:2003-02-13
Mission Viejo, CA
clubs:

Re: The reasons, let's list!

Outstanding, Thasp.

reub2000
Premium
join:2001-12-28
Evanston, IL

said by thender See Profile :

DRM is the equivalent of closing the front door of the apartment complex and leaving the backdoor open. It doesn't keep people from getting in, it just annoys people who want to get home.
QFT

eMusic has been making money selling music without DRM. Movie studios could make money selling movies in whatever codec the consumer demands.
--
My pbase gallery
lawrence171
Evilly Yours - Evilness

join:2001-12-24
Canada
·Acanac Inc.

said by thender See Profile :

said by lawrence171 See Profile :

There are only several significant DRM-players in the market.

Digital Right Management is actually quite important, but its merely being abused.

If history tells us anything, it will take approximately 50 years for that to change.
DRM isn't important at all.

There will always a different version of that file on usenet, or P2P. Name a single DRMed piece of media on iTunes that isn't on a P2P network or usenet already, in equal or better quality.

If the file is already available on these networks, then there is no point to DRM. DRM is there to prevent the file from being copied, but if there are better copies of the file out there without DRM already, on the networks that DRM is supposed to avoid them going to, then why bother with it? It's a waste of money and it only bothers people.

DRM is the equivalent of closing the front door of the apartment complex and leaving the backdoor open. It doesn't keep people from getting in, it just annoys people who want to get home.
Of course it is important. However, they're applying it in all the wrong places, and using all the wrong methods.

The file containing personal medical records should be protected, and so should files containing personal information (the military could REALLY use some help in this area).
--
What I used to be I no longer am... God, why can't you freeze time for my sake?

thender
Glamour Profession
Premium
join:2004-05-16
Staten Island, NY

Re: The reasons, let's list!

said by lawrence171 See Profile :

said by thender See Profile :

said by lawrence171 See Profile :

There are only several significant DRM-players in the market.

Digital Right Management is actually quite important, but its merely being abused.

If history tells us anything, it will take approximately 50 years for that to change.
DRM isn't important at all.

There will always a different version of that file on usenet, or P2P. Name a single DRMed piece of media on iTunes that isn't on a P2P network or usenet already, in equal or better quality.

If the file is already available on these networks, then there is no point to DRM. DRM is there to prevent the file from being copied, but if there are better copies of the file out there without DRM already, on the networks that DRM is supposed to avoid them going to, then why bother with it? It's a waste of money and it only bothers people.

DRM is the equivalent of closing the front door of the apartment complex and leaving the backdoor open. It doesn't keep people from getting in, it just annoys people who want to get home.
Of course it is important. However, they're applying it in all the wrong places, and using all the wrong methods.

The file containing personal medical records should be protected, and so should files containing personal information (the military could REALLY use some help in this area).
I didn't see where personal medical records or military information become relevant when discussing music and movies meant for entertainment.

For any sort of media within the scope of this conversation, DRM is useless.
--
The Problem With Music.


Our Rationale


Time to rewrite the DMCA.
lawrence171
Evilly Yours - Evilness

join:2001-12-24
Canada
·Acanac Inc.

Re: The reasons, let's list!

said by thender See Profile :

I didn't see where personal medical records or military information become relevant when discussing music and movies meant for entertainment.

For any sort of media within the scope of this conversation, DRM is useless.
Thus, DRM is being "abused".
--
What I used to be I no longer am... God, why can't you freeze time for my sake?
mumixam

join:2004-08-10
Pensacola, FL

edit:
December 26th, @06:49PM

well put, Thasp
Lysis

join:2005-03-30
Brooklyn, NY
8% seems low to me

brooklynman4

join:2004-09-07
Brooklyn, NY

Re: 8 percent of what?

8 percent my friend equals to 80 percent lol now do u call that high lol.
jimbo2150

join:2004-05-10
Youngstown, OH
·Dreamhost
·Armstrong Zoom In..


edit:
December 26th, @08:41PM

Re: 8 percent of what?

Most likely: world population.

Since the U.S. reached a landmark 300 bil. people recently, 6 mil of 300 bil. is like .002 percent.

This would also mean that piracy, in comparison to the total ammount of piracy in the world, is very low in the U.S. Oddly enough. Of course Asian and European coutries do, in most locations, have faster internet connections than those in the U.S..

I do have to agree with some though, that number seems a bit skimpy.

EDIT: Actually, 6 mil of total population is an even smaller percent. My second guess: A small test group? Who knows with these guys.
--

- "Techie" Jim
karlmarx

join:2006-09-18
Nashua, NH
·Fairpoint Communic..

Re: 8 percent of what?

300 BILLION? People? In the US? Umm, your off by a factor of 1000. There's 300 Million people in the US, NOT 300 BILLION. 6 Million = 2% of the population.
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alalper
Premium
join:2000-08-20
Philadelphia, PA
Err. . . . . that's 300 million not 300 billion people in the US.
AnonShawUser

join:2006-06-17
Calgary, AB

Er? 300 Billion people? I'm not sure if you have your wires crossed, if you're confused about the total world population, if you're counting specific bacterial counts, or if you're being sarcastic.

Because, the world's population, at a stretch, is 10 Billion. The US has 300 Million people. That would make 8% be 24 Million pirates. Which isn't a small number at all.
f1ip

join:2003-10-24
TX

I dont think the US population is larger than the World's total population. Unless you want to count the 294billion aliens living on Mars and other planets as part of the US.

Current projected world population is around 6,565,850,673

Current US Population: 300,473,963
6million of that is about 2%
jimbo2150

join:2004-05-10
Youngstown, OH
Opps, your right, I added too many 0's. Sorry.
--
- "Techie" Jim

MadMANN
Premium
join:2005-08-19
·Comcast

Is it a suprise that 60% of piracy is for porn?
So, let's add to the reasons (this sort of goes with price):

e-2) Nobody wants to pay $30 for a 90 minute spank session that is only used for about 3 mins.

dong111

@rogers.com
lol

PolarBear
The bear formerly known as aaron8301

join:2005-01-03
Riverside, WA
·CableOne

If you ever travel to the Pacific Northwest, I'll buy you a beer, thender See Profile.

Cheers!
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Doctor Dan
Weapons Of Masturbation
Premium
join:2001-10-20
Papiopolis

Note what's being downloaded most...

"Of those p2p video downloads, 60 percent were adult-film content, 20 percent were TV shows and 5 percent were mainstream films."

- Dan
--
"That which does not kill us makes us stranger."

P2PPirate2

join:2005-02-02
New York, NY

Re: Note what's being downloaded most...

LOL, so porn do rule the internet.

SRFireside

join:2001-01-19
Houston, TX

Re: Note what's being downloaded most...

Financially, yes. Porn is still one of the biggest money making businesses on the Internet.
Kearnstd
Elf Wizard

join:2002-01-22
Mullica Hill, NJ
only 5% was of mainstream movies yet Hollywood is looking at the net like its the coming of the apocalypse.
--
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shimonmor

join:2000-12-30
Sedro Woolley, WA
·wavebroadband

Porn

I'm sure the porn industry is furious that the majority of video downloads are taking the food off their tables.

I Googled the "NDP group" to see who finances their research. Looks like their clients are businesses ("NPD has over 1600 clients, ranging from Fortune 100 leaders to smaller businesses"). I wonder if they have an agenda other than straight market research?

I think their numbers are misleading because of the way they set up the parameters. 10MB files are pretty small for video. And the fact that 60% of the stuff is porn throws off the whole thing because it seems to me they are skewing this research towards the movie/TV industry. They need to conduct their research in a better manner for their numbers to have significance.

inteller
Sociopaths always win.

join:2003-12-08
Tulsa, OK

Re: Porn

Hey, its not like porn is expensive to produce. The profit margin on porn is so high.....if they just sell a few videos they break even.
RayW
Premium
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Layton, UT
clubs:
·XMission


edit:
December 26th, @09:47PM

And my wife bought over 36 DVDs from mail order

That is one HECK of a lot more than it seems NPD is looking at on a per capita basis. She wants a real product, not downloaded smoke and mirrors that may have a time bomb in it that may do something unexpected ranging from vanishing to destroying your machine (Sony? you listening?).

I am suspect of the numbers used, since most people I know (not all) would not consider using NPD's monitoring software, ESPECIALLY if doing porn or "illegal" downloads.

Edit: Spelling
--
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SRFireside

join:2001-01-19
Houston, TX
·RoadRunner Cable

Re: And my wife bought over 36 DVDs from mail order

If 60% of the downloads they surveyed is pornography then they are barking up the wrong tree. The porn industry has little interest in fighting piracy as they end up getting more money for what is essentially free advertising. The first industry to make a killing on the Internet, and is still considered one of the highest revenue generating industries at that, is pornography.

Love it or hate it. It proves that an open business model with no restrictions can make money on the Internet.
OB Kenobi

join:2005-05-29
Brooklyn, NY

Time Warner Are The Pirates

These stupid DRM'd media players are going to wind up having more security on them than a nuclear warhead.

I also question the validity of these piracy statistics in the first place. 8% of households *WITH BROADBAND* compared to 2% of *ALL* households. How much would that be?

If those numbers are even accurate. Are you telling me that NPD asked the entire country? It's the people they didn't ask that are buying their media. Still buying VHS tapes no doubt, by the millions.

I've said it before, if cable companies stopped charging criminally inflated prices for digital cable then no one would have to pirate anything.

$60 for basic digital... WTF ARE YOU DOING, TIME WARNER! I HOPE VERIZON CRUSHES YOU! THEN I HOPE SOMEONE CRUSHES VERIZON!

shimonmor

join:2000-12-30
Sedro Woolley, WA
·wavebroadband

Re: Time Warner Are The Pirates

said by OB Kenobi See Profile :

WTF ARE YOU DOING, TIME WARNER! I HOPE VERIZON CRUSHES YOU! THEN I HOPE SOMEONE CRUSHES VERIZON!
Easy, killer. Don't let the Dark Side of the Force get the better of you!
jimbo2150

join:2004-05-10
Youngstown, OH
·Dreamhost
·Armstrong Zoom In..

said by OB Kenobi See Profile :

These stupid DRM'd media players are going to wind up having more security on them than a nuclear warhead.
Actually, nukes typically don't have much security to them. Why do you think the world's governments find it a problem that terrorists may get their hands on some?

You are right though, if DRM continues on this course it is going to cause major problems and they will probably start loosing customers in the millions (and possibly billions) rather than the current 'tens'.

Will these companies or the governments learn from this? Who knows, maybe there's a story to learn through the past prohibition in the U.S. somewhere, huh?

said by OB Kenobi See Profile :

$60 for basic digital... WTF ARE YOU DOING, TIME WARNER! I HOPE VERIZON CRUSHES YOU! THEN I HOPE SOMEONE CRUSHES VERIZON!
Easy boy. I hate it as much as you. I agree competion needs to come to the masses. Letting the likes of Verizon and ATT become as big as they did in the past is probably not going to help, but it may be a start.
--
- "Techie" Jim

maartena
Obama 2008

join:2002-05-10
Orange, CA
·RoadRunner Cable

The biggest problem with DRM is freedom...

I don't know about you, but I still listen to CD's I bought in the 80ties, and still listen to MP3's I downloaded with Napster in 1997 or so.

The problem with the current DRM setup is that there are too many different types of DRM, managed by too many different types of companies. My iPod will be obsolete by 2010, and by 2015 the term "MP3" will probably have been replaced by something else. And will the MP3's that I BOUGHT from iTunes still play on the player that is the new default in 2015?

Music is timeless. And there is a good chance I will actually still listen to those CD's that I bought in the 80ties in 2010 or 2015, and they will WORK on whatever BluRay or HD-DVD player I will buy in the coming years.

I have no idea whether the DRM used on my iTunes MP3's will still work in 2015, but I do know that all current DRM standard will probably have been HACKED by 2015, and if I buy a player then, will it not play my current DRM'd music from iTunes? I am not looking forward to purchasing the same music AGAIN in 10 years time, just because new DRM rules apply.

And if I buy music, I want to do whatever the hell I want with it. So if I have a MP3 supporting CD player in my car, I want to burn them on a CD and play them there. I don't want to be restricted by big-record-label telling me I cannot play this music on this new MP3 player I just bought....
--
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both" -
Benjamin Franklin, Founding Father.
shaddix

join:2006-12-26
Sylacauga, AL

Re: The biggest problem with DRM is freedom...

dude your 80's cds aren't going to last much longer =( you need to make backups of those things ASAP, they decay over time, 80's ones probably won't last til 2015

maartena
Obama 2008

join:2002-05-10
Orange, CA
·RoadRunner Cable

Re: The biggest problem with DRM is freedom...

said by shaddix See Profile :

dude your 80's cds aren't going to last much longer =( you need to make backups of those things ASAP, they decay over time, 80's ones probably won't last til 2015
I already have. I made copies for my car, and I have ripped them to MP3's for my MP3 player.

And whatever music I purchase in the future - or movies for that matter - I would like to do with that as I please.

Big corporations are so afraid I will start distributing the music, while all I want to do is spread the music within my household in different rooms or cars.
--
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both" -
Benjamin Franklin, Founding Father.
dda
Premium
join:2003-12-29
Bolton, MA

said by maartena See Profile :

And will the MP3's that I BOUGHT from iTunes still play on the player that is the new default in 2015?
Since the iTunes Store doesn't sell MP3s, chances are that any "MP3s" you bought won't play now, let alone in 2015.

I'm guessing that any of the AACs that you bought from the iTunes store will continue to work in whatever players Apple releases in the future or they will provide a converter that will convert it to whatever DRM scheme the license holders require.
And if I buy music, I want to do whatever the hell I want with it.
Unfortunately, the folks that actually own the license to that music don't want you to do whever the hell you want since, for many people, "whatever the hell they want" includes sharing it will millions of their closest friends.
Kearnstd
Elf Wizard

join:2002-01-22
Mullica Hill, NJ
i dont see an EULA with the CDs i buy so therefore i can make as my personal copies as i want.
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karlmarx

join:2006-09-18
Nashua, NH
·Fairpoint Communic..

The REAL news

Is that 8% of the population is using P2P. That means we have a SERIOUS PROBLEM here people. There's only enough prison space for 2 MILLION people. That means that we need to build enough prison cells for another 10 MILLION people. That means for every prison we currently have, we need another FIVE!
That's right. 5x more prisons to house all the criminals.
A wise person would invest all their money in for profit prisons right now, because with the new patriot act, ALL P2P users will go to prison, and we're going to see the biggest prison population explosion EVER.
--
Stick it to the MAN. Support your local torrent sites. Proudly providing 100mb of upstream for all your TV, Movie, and MP3 needs.
AnonShawUser

join:2006-06-17
Calgary, AB

Re: The REAL news

8% of the US 300 million population is 24 million. You'll have to build 11 prisons for every one.
AnonShawUser

join:2006-06-17
Calgary, AB

Re: The REAL news

Actually, now that I think about it.. that's between $1.2 and 2.4 Billion dollars per MONTH that ISPs would be losing, if they tried to get rid of all their "pirate" customers, since most of them go for the premium services, which cost $50 or more.

Be funny if the pirates got together and stood unified against the rest of America for technological change.

thender
Glamour Profession
Premium
join:2004-05-16
Staten Island, NY

Re: The REAL news

said by AnonShawUser See Profile :

if they tried to get rid of all their "pirate" customers...
Then there goes widespread, consumer level broadband.

'cause I don't see people upgrading from 3 mbps to 6 mbps to download legitimate DRMed video.
AnonShawUser

join:2006-06-17
Calgary, AB

Re: The REAL news

Exactly. Even if it's 10% of American -homes- that are "pirate dens" as they would probably enjoy calling them, compared to the total of ~100 Million, that's 10 million homes.

The problem is, less than 50 million American homes have broadband internet. And that'd still be 10 million homes.

So, if 20% of the total top-tier home/consumer level broadband subscribers suddenly dropped their service(since those are the very people who download a lot), you'd see a hit of over $400 Million per month(minimum of $40/month for service, multiplied by 10 million homes), to all the broadband providers. That's 5 billion per year they would lose, combined.

And then there's all the bundle services they might be more willing to downgrade, since they no longer have any real reason to keep them up.

And the lower cost of utilities, since the computers wouldn't be on as often.

And then there's no real reason to keep upgrading computers all the time, since there's no access to all that upper level content. So there goes.. probably $500/year on average, in upgrade parts.

And then of course, there's no reason AT ALL for Vista, since you'd be on a computer that's always offline, so MS would be losing $300-700 per user there, multiplied by perhaps 1.2 for the average number of computers per home that would be affected.

And in the end.. would Hollywood be making any more from these reformed pirates? I know that I, for instance, wouldn't bother spending my money on most of the movies. And if I do, it'll be as a rental, perhaps one movie a month.

Oh, and then there'd be my online rental plan, for games AND movies, so there goes another $20/month from me, and more from other users..

So, if Hollywood had its way, stopping the average pirate from downloading maybe 3-4 movies per month on a heavy month(average of probably MUCH less), that would mean that there'd be an annual drop in income for the entire telecommunication and technology industries of.. how much? About $7 Billion?

That's a really huge chunk of change, isn't it?

Doctor Four
My other vehicle is a TARDIS
Premium
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Dallas, TX
·AT&T U-Verse
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said by AnonShawUser See Profile :

Be funny if the pirates got together and stood unified against the rest of America for technological change.
It could happen. I read that Sweden's Pirate Party is
launching a US Chapter for 2008: »www.slyck.com/story1366.html
--
"The trouble with computers, of course, is that they are very sophisticated idiots." - Doctor Who (from Robot)
squid7
Premium
join:2006-09-02
·Cox HSI

Yeah but...

How many legally rented movies from an ONLINE movie rental service like Netflix or Blockbuster Online? What percentage legally rented movies in a brick-n-mortar store or bought a PPV? What was the ratio of "stolen" content to legally obtained content.

If 99+% of US drivers violated the speed limit at least once during the Q3 of 2006 doesn't mean the world is coming to an end on the highways of America.

IMO it's a loaded statistic of little real substance other than online movie download services can't compete with the zillion other sources for legit moving rentals.

i1me2ao

join:2001-03-03
TEXAS

Re: Yeah but...

i pay retail for my childerens movies that i buy. but download a movie every now and then to view for me.
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»www.thereligionofpeace.com/
Forums » Piracy Beating Legit Video


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