The Future of DSL - Yankee Group: 'VDSL2 is the future'

The Future of DSL
Yankee Group: 'VDSL2 is the future'
(old news - 02:46PM Monday Sep 27 2004)
tags: dsl · hardware

The Yankee Group seems rather bullish that both ADSL2+ (20+Mbps) and VDSL2 (not yet standardized by promises up to 100Mbps) can compete with fiber as a telco route for TV services. The report takes a quick peek at the status of various DSL flavors, comparing speeds, modulation, and where each currently stands. The group urges a quick standardization of VDSL2 if the technology is to compete with fiber over the next decade.

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Forums » The Future of DSL


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P Ness You'Ve Forgotten 9-11 Already Premium join:2001-08-29 Cromwell, CT clubs:	yawnnnnn- whatever when?? was this not promised in 1996? i know a few years ago SNET local phone company was doing tv. Ding first post :P
	permalink · 2004-09-27 14:28:34 ·

Pictor Guy join:2004-06-21 Sammamish, WA	Re: yawnnnnn- whatever said by P Ness : when?? was this not promised in 1996? heh... I'm still waiting for SDSL or plain ol' ADSL. Living in the fastest growing county in the US in the Washington DC 'burbs and I'm still behind an RT with no DSL support. Fiber is just a pipe dream unless I move a few blocks down the road where OpenBand offers FTTP.
	permalink · 2004-09-27 14:57:50 ·

Estragon

join:2003-06-20
Greenville, NH

·MV Communications,..

Yawn - wake me up when they actually deploy it

This is just yet more promises that will never be fulfilled.

I got excited about DSL when I first heard of it (a many years ago!). Didn't do me any good. Until we can get Verizon to deploy DSL in RT's, it's a pretty useless technology in my town.

What we need is LDDSL! That's Long Distance DSL.

Or for the FCC to force Verizon to let COVAD deploy equipment in the RT's. Then we might actually get rural broadband.

permalink · 2004-09-27 15:52:01 · Print ·

Googled
Yay, I have FIOS

join:2001-08-13
Orchard Park, NY

·VoicePulse

·Verizon FIOS

Re: Yawn - wake me up when they actually deploy it

said by Estragon :
What we need is LDDSL! That's Long Distance DSL.

No don't call it long distance. The phone companies will want to charge you by the minute if you use that term.

I agree it seems that the biggest hurdle remaining for DSL is to increase the usable distance. I've read of repeater type solutions to increase distance. Why won't phone companies take that step to increase availability?

permalink · 2004-09-27 21:03:18 · Print ·

LaserjetXX join:2004-03-13 Waterford, MI	Re: yawnnnnn- whatever I agree. I'm tired of hearing about all these technologies that have no impact even on a somewhat distant future.
	permalink · 2004-09-27 21:20:34 ·

DaSneaky1D
one wall to block them all
Premium,MVM
join:2001-03-29
The Lou

·Charter Pipeline

So, DSL is the Great Broadband Hope

While DSL is a great technology, its major downfall is distance. Plain and simple. So, in order to offer these new fangled services, how much money will need to be sunk into a technology that is already outdated. In order to keep loop lengths short enough to offer these services, WAAAAAYYYY more "Neighborhood Gateways" will need to be installed.

Fiber to each and every home will not become an option for mass consumption any time soon. For that to happen, Telco's will need to change nearly their entire infrastructure. Who cares what Verizon is doing. Are they doing it in your neighborhood...and how long will it be until they do.

The sad thing is, the only bad thing going for cable HSI is it's low upload. Other than that, the technology has everything going for it.
--
] :: my trivial ramblings :: [

permalink · 2004-09-27 14:34:30 · Print ·

ronpin Imagine Reality join:2002-12-06 Nirvana ·AT&T Southwest	Re: So, DSL is the Great Broadband Hope said by DaSneaky1D : Who cares what Verizon is doing. Are they doing it in your neighborhood... Yes they are. Many of you reading this will live long enough to tell your grandchildren about the dark-age days of no fiber. I didn't expect to live that long -- but I was wrong Being wrong is highly under-rated
	permalink · 2004-09-27 14:41:03 · Print ·

toddbs98 join:2000-07-08 North Little Rock, AR clubs:	Re: So, DSL is the Great Broadband Hope WOW one town in the whole US they have done it in,and not even a major city at that..
	permalink · 2004-09-27 14:43:21 ·

ronpin Imagine Reality join:2002-12-06 Nirvana ·AT&T Southwest	Re: So, DSL is the Great Broadband Hope said by toddbs98 : WOW one town in the whole US they have done it in,and not even a major city at that.. Once again Keller IS Dallas/Fort Worth -- hardly nowhere (and I should know)
	permalink · 2004-09-27 14:50:06 ·

BosstonesOwn

join:2002-12-15
Everett, MA
clubs:

·Comcast

·Comcast Formerly ..

said by toddbs98 :
WOW one town in the whole US they have done it in,and not even a major city at that..

But locally here they are pulling fiber in a lot of the affluent cities in my area. And I see it DAILY. My job takes me all around this great state of mine and I can tell you I see tons of trucks rolling fiber and a crap load of contractors laying the conduit.
--
"It's always funny until someone gets hurt......and then it's absolutely friggin' hysterical!"

permalink · 2004-09-27 18:58:48 · Print ·

cyrus369

join:2002-09-16
usa
clubs:

said by ronpin :

said by DaSneaky1D :
Who cares what Verizon is doing. Are they doing it in your neighborhood...
Yes they are. Many of you reading this will live long enough to tell your grandchildren about the dark-age days of no fiber. I didn't expect to live that long -- but I was wrong

Being wrong is highly under-rated

of course one of the few people from keller, the only place with fios responds.
--
Don't argue with an idiot, he will bring you down to his level, and win because of experience.

permalink · 2004-09-27 14:43:40 · Print ·

DaSneaky1D
one wall to block them all
Premium,MVM
join:2001-03-29
The Lou

·Charter Pipeline

1 edit

Of course someone from Keller, TX would respond...

Keller is a puppet show. Richardson, TX (SBC) is a puppet show. Those people have fiber up to their computer desks...but 1.5mbps/128kbps speeds. What's to stop them from getting faster speeds? Expanding from Richardson to other counties?

I'll take Verizon (and SBC in my case) seriously when I can see my RT/Fiber node down my block.
--
] :: my trivial ramblings :: [

permalink · 2004-09-27 14:50:32 ·

cyrus369

join:2002-09-16
usa
clubs:

Re: So, DSL is the Great Broadband Hope

said by DaSneaky1D :
Of course someone from Keller, TX would respond...

Keller is a puppet show. Richardson, TX (SBC) is a puppet show. Those people have fiber up to their computer desks...but 1.5mbps/128kbps speeds. What's to stop them from getting faster speeds? Expanding from Richardson to other counties?

I'll take Verizon (and SBC in my case) seriously when I can see my RT/Fiber node down my block.

im going with sneaky on this, ill believe it when i see it. until then everyone needs to calm down cuz by time you get fiber you probably wont care much for it or it will be priced that will make it unattractive.
--
Don't argue with an idiot, he will bring you down to his level, and win because of experience.

permalink · 2004-09-27 15:49:21 · Print ·

cyrus369

join:2002-09-16
usa
clubs:

said by DaSneaky1D :

Fiber to each and every home will not become an option for mass consumption any time soon. For that to happen, Telco's will need to change nearly their entire infrastructure. Who cares what Verizon is doing. Are they doing it in your neighborhood...and how long will it be until they do.

same thing i have been saying for months, but im sure the people that swear verizon dug up thier neighborhood will probably respond. i dont see fiber taking over on a large level for years and years to come, i mean they cannot dig up every street in a few years now can they? and what about $$$$$$$$ for permits and all the equipment that the cheap consumer are not willing to pay for nor will they want to pay too much for the installation or be locked into a contract.
--
Don't argue with an idiot, he will bring you down to his level, and win because of experience.

permalink · 2004-09-27 14:42:34 · Print ·

Swingerhead Premium join:2004-04-06 Richmond, VA	Re: So, DSL is the Great Broadband Hope Cavtel is supposed to have it soon in some markets as soon as hardware is in place I hear.
	permalink · 2004-09-27 14:58:41 ·

BosstonesOwn

join:2002-12-15
Everett, MA
clubs:

·Comcast

·Comcast Formerly ..

said by cyrus369 :

said by DaSneaky1D :

Fiber to each and every home will not become an option for mass consumption any time soon. For that to happen, Telco's will need to change nearly their entire infrastructure. Who cares what Verizon is doing. Are they doing it in your neighborhood...and how long will it be until they do.

same thing i have been saying for months, but im sure the people that swear verizon dug up thier neighborhood will probably respond. i dont see fiber taking over on a large level for years and years to come, i mean they cannot dig up every street in a few years now can they? and what about $$$$$$$$ for permits and all the equipment that the cheap consumer are not willing to pay for nor will they want to pay too much for the installation or be locked into a contract.

Think about something for a moment here.

Verizon has tons of customers. Their profits are being plunked into this fiber. The cost is estimated at $2,000 per customer. Not every one in an area will get the product.

So even if they wire up all the cities and force all the phones over to fiber instead of coper they will make hand over fist leasing the copper off to other providers of dsl and such.

Now remember that they have had 90 + years to pay off the copper they laid. Fiber will be the same. Tons of time to pay it off. Stop looking at what is now and think about a future.

Verizon is working hard to deploy fiber but they can not simply roll out to your house because your you. It don't work like that. They will test it and figure out ways to bring down the cost of install and deployments. When they do they will be doing 3 x the installs at a faster and cheaper rate.

They don't bury all the fiber. Just like your copper it's strung on a pole where the equivalent of a node is hung, which then drops a band of light just for you to your little NID where you jack in and get your phone/tv/net. It is not as expensive as you think to string fiber on poles.

The labor is the most expensive part and if the contractors keep up by cutting each others throats like they are, and lowering costs to get more work it will get even cheaper.
--
"It's always funny until someone gets hurt......and then it's absolutely friggin' hysterical!"

permalink · 2004-09-27 19:06:52 · Print ·

cyrus369 join:2002-09-16 usa clubs:	Re: So, DSL is the Great Broadband Hope believe what you want, and i think the bulk of copper was laid in the 50's and 60's but i could be wrong. we wont see fiber on a large scale for a long time. -- Don't argue with an idiot, he will bring you down to his level, and win because of experience.
	permalink · 2004-09-27 19:28:23 ·

BosstonesOwn

join:2002-12-15
Everett, MA
clubs:

·Comcast

·Comcast Formerly ..

Re: So, DSL is the Great Broadband Hope

said by cyrus369 :
believe what you want, and i think the bulk of copper was laid in the 50's and 60's but i could be wrong. we wont see fiber on a large scale for a long time.

Depends on how they get the costs down if it becomes a $300 install like dsl then it will certainly become very easy once the major work is done.

The cable companies did this very procedure with their fiber to the node operations and it didn't take them long. It will happen with in 7 to 10 years. Technology as a whole has dictated that this is the future and if any of the companies wish to survive they have to get the ball rolling or they will be left behind.
--
"It's always funny until someone gets hurt......and then it's absolutely friggin' hysterical!"

permalink · 2004-09-27 19:32:23 · Print ·

CPM join:2001-08-24 Miami, FL	I hate the term bullish When I hear some Company is bullish about something. I think of BS Vaporware. Not just they are bullish they are also promising.. Hmmm We have heard this before. Do us a favor The Yankee Group, don't tell us you are going to do something. JUST DO IT. Then tell us about it. -- Broadwayman.com - Internet portal for Everything Broadway and New York.
	permalink · 2004-09-27 15:26:09 ·

mabus Dissociated But Not Disconnected join:2002-11-12 Fort Wayne, IN	as always, there's a catch the catch to getting these super high speeds is that you must take up residence INSIDE THE CO.
	permalink · 2004-09-27 15:27:55 ·

vpoko
Premium
join:2003-07-03
Jamaica Plain, MA

Not so fast...

As is often the case, it seems the answer isn't so black and white.

Fiber is the technology of the future for lots of technical reasons such as higher bandwidth (especially with dense wave multiplexing) and immunity to crosstalk and RF interference.

On the other hand, fiber isn't going to have high market penetration for awhile because it's just not there! It'll take at least 10 years of digging to get fiber into most residential neighborhoods.

As such, we're going to need temporary solutions to keep up with increased demand for bandwidth (which is a loaded statement because in a way all solutions are temporary). ADSL2+ and, later on, VDSL seem to be preferable to, say, cable, wireless, or powerline networking (in most cases, other technologies have their own benefits).

Most of us will see FTTH in our lifetimes. Most of us WON'T see FTTH within the next 3-5 years, which leaves a very nice niche for future DSL technologies.

permalink · 2004-09-27 15:31:47 · Print ·

techjoe Premium join:2004-02-20 Schererville, IN ·Sprint Mobile Broa..	Re: Not so fast... said by vpoko : Most of us will see FTTH in our lifetimes. Most of us WON'T see FTTH within the next 3-5 years, which leaves a very nice niche for future DSL technologies. Or something on the lines of WiMAX. One can hope, right??
	permalink · 2004-09-27 15:43:46 ·

DaSneaky1D
one wall to block them all
Premium,MVM
join:2001-03-29
The Lou

·Charter Pipeline

That's the point I'm making. How much will it cost to install all of the equipment needed to make these "temporary solutions" available to people? In order to get a loop length under 9000 feet for every telco subscriber in a major city would cost hundreds of millions.

Is a company more likely to spend those millions on a dead technology or on rolling out fiber? If they spend it on fiber, then it will be years before you or I get to see it (both of us living in a major city). Once again, we have a catch 22.

If the point of higher bandwidth is for video over DSL, hmmm...Cable already has the infrastructure in place for that. So, what is really filling the niche?
--
] :: my trivial ramblings :: [

permalink · 2004-09-27 15:54:52 · Print ·

vpoko
Premium
join:2003-07-03
Jamaica Plain, MA

Re: Not so fast...

Yeah, I see what you're saying and I don't really have an answer for it. If it will turn them a profit, even in the short-term, companies will invest in anything. I guess the companies will need to evaluate if the venture is going to be worth their while.

My personal opinion (and I've conducted no studies of my own) is that telcos will invest the (relatively) inexpensive amount in DSL (which only requires new equipment, the copper is already there) for a short-term profit and not just focus on long-term FTTH initiatives.

I guess the question to ask is: would you want to be stuck with current ADSL speeds for the next 10 years until FTTH is universal? (With sincere apologies to those folks who can't even get ADSL right now)

permalink · 2004-09-27 16:13:29 · Print ·

BIGMIKE Premium join:2002-06-07 Westminster, CA	BY the time I see fiber? I be to old to give a shit.
	permalink · 2004-09-27 16:17:02 ·

TechSponge join:2001-05-14 Hillside, NJ	Loop Length The report fails to mention about how long a loop length will be supported.(I glanced over the report). I rember one of the higher speed DSL variants maxed out as near as 5000 ft. You can bet that even if it will be supported out to 25,000 ft. that Verizon will push your loop length out to 27,500 ft. with no repercusions.
	permalink · 2004-09-27 16:56:45 ·

Transmaster
Don't Blame Me I Voted For Bill and Opus

join:2001-06-20
Cheyenne, WY

·Qwest.net

Fiber for the masses.....

This is the only fiber any of us are likey to see
--
»www.gobpl.com

permalink · 2004-09-28 02:08:25 · Print ·

SoilFlames
Premium
join:2002-03-17
Andover, MN
clubs:

1 edit

heh

^ rofl hah no joke. Especially here in qwest minnesota. Qwest is the last to do just about everything it seems. They do however have vdsl rollouts in denver, as well as meetings to develop fiber in denver. But no never in Suburban Minnesota. Hell i would pay close to $60 a month just for any fiber connection. When i win the powerball i'll just have qwest run my own fiber

I think all of the technically inclined people should move to one area of the country where we can take advantage of new technologies and pay taxes to help pay for the rollouts of late-breaking technology, and let the rest of the country who could care less enjoy their dial-up while browsing ebay buying lamp shades.

permalink · 2004-09-28 02:22:16 · Print ·

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yawnnnnn- whatever

Re: yawnnnnn- whatever

Yawn - wake me up when they actually deploy it

Re: Yawn - wake me up when they actually deploy it

Re: yawnnnnn- whatever

So, DSL is the Great Broadband Hope

Re: So, DSL is the Great Broadband Hope

Re: So, DSL is the Great Broadband Hope

Re: So, DSL is the Great Broadband Hope

Re: So, DSL is the Great Broadband Hope

Re: So, DSL is the Great Broadband Hope

Re: So, DSL is the Great Broadband Hope

Re: So, DSL is the Great Broadband Hope

I hate the term bullish

as always, there's a catch

Not so fast...

Re: Not so fast...

Re: Not so fast...

Loop Length

Fiber for the masses.....

heh