As you may be aware, we have been running speed tests for users almost since the site started back in 1999. Graphing recent results by speed and comparing this to the same graph done at the end of 2001 shows an industry that's seen remarkable change over a fairly short period of time. The bottom line: most (but not all) users are getting higher download speeds, and paying slightly less, while basic dial-up sinks under a storm of pop-ups. Has YOUR ISP introduced an improved download speed, for the same price, over that time?

Our speed test archive gathers data from a variety of ISP's, with 98% of the data representing the speeds of U.S. and Canadian consumer ISPs. Looking back at a sampling of data taken from October 2001, you can clearly see where DSL subscribers (usually 756kbps to 1.5mbps) and cable subscribers (from 1-2mbps) reside. The lower numbers are obviously dial-up and ISDN, the faster numbers are from providers such as Optimum On-line and other connectivity options (fiber, T1, frame relay).



Compare that data to the past several weeks of 2003:



Other than the implication that connectivity options such as ISDN and dial-up are very slowly fading, several other industry trends are fairly apparent in this data.

Cable's move to 3mbps

Most apparent is the jump in cable connectivity to 3mbps. Originally a Comcast response to bell DSL price-cuts, the past twelve months has seen the majority of cable providers adopt the speed as their de-facto standard. Comcast CEO Brian Roberts shrugged off DSL price-cuts, claiming DSL was a "less robust product" and set an industry standard by upping downstream speeds. Roberts continues to claim that 100mbps is entirely "viable" in the not so distant future.

Montreal based Cogeco announced this year they'd be increasing downstream speeds from 2 to 3Mbps for all 1.9 million of their cable customers. Time Warner Cable followed suit, raising the downstream speeds to 3mbps, while considering an upstream shift to 512kbps. The majority of the largest cable providers made some form of downstream improvement in 2003; smaller providers, like Brighthouse Networks, have yet to make the jump.

Even Northern Virginia, a one-time candidate for the worst broadband service in the country under Cox Communications, now witnesses 3mbps downstream speeds.

DSL, DSL Lite, and Bundle Mania

Price conscious dial-up users found 2003 to be the year they finally jumped to DSL. SBC and Yahoo shocked the industry by unveiling a 1.5mbps DSL tier for $26.95 a month. SBC added 365,000 new DSL lines in just the third quarter of 2003; the jump evident in the 1-1.5mbps ranges a sign that users are warming up to SBC (and other bell) discount DSL offerings.

Not entirely apparent in the data is the shift from connectivity options such as dial-up and ISDN to certain 'DSL-Lite' tiers. Such discount tiers began emerging over the past 12 months in the hopes of luring dial-up customers away from their finger-drumming life in the slow-lane. BellSouth offers 256Kbps for a not so impressive $39.95 a month ($34.95 if you bundle).

The largest shift in the past two years among providers is the push toward bundling. A number of users have flocked to less expensive broadband service provided they sign up for other "bundled" services. In 2003 many cable providers began offering digital television, DVR features, and broadband in a bundle. Telecom companies likewise began bundling voice and wireless options, bringing a flood of users into the broadband fold.

The death of Dial-up?

The mutuall assured destruction among discount dialup providers, the intro of AOL's long over-due discount dial-up package, and the new breed of dialup-accelerator products are possibly the end-game for the entire dialup industry. Still, 60% of US home users dial into the Internet with "narrowband" connections, with an incredible 2.8% still using 14.4Kbps modems. With email boxes full of spam and spyware, with little bandwidth available to upgrade, one wonders what these users think of "the internet".