 iansltx join:2007-02-19 Golden, CO kudos:2 | reply to tmc8080
Re: deploy & don't look back! How are you going to finance the $1000+ per customer build with $29.95 per month service? $45-$60 per month, sure, but $30 per month would be a very bad idea. |
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 FBGuyPremium join:2005-03-19 Evanston, IL Reviews:
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1 edit | said by iansltx:How are you going to finance the $1000+ per customer build with $29.95 per month service?. 30 yr contracts /s |
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 BlueC join:2009-11-26 Minneapolis, MN | reply to iansltx You know what's interesting, in MDU environments, you can do FTTB and offer 100mbps/100mbps connectivity for as little as $20/mo.
Too bad nobody is really stepping up to accomplish that, and it doesn't help that the big telcos are very hesitant to do fiber builds to non-commercial buildings.
It can be done, and will eventually be done in certain markets. There are some telecommunication companies out there that are eager to build out their fiber infrastructure... |
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| reply to FBGuy Ahh the haters. People don't understand that what once expensive yesterday, becomes cheaper today. As technology advances, components and fiber become less of a monetary burden. In fact the more rollouts that happen drives the price lower. Doesn't anybody remember how expensive HDTV was when it first came out? |
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 iansltx join:2007-02-19 Golden, CO kudos:2 | Install costs don't magically get retroactively lower. |
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 iansltx join:2007-02-19 Golden, CO kudos:2 Reviews:
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| reply to BlueC In MDU, I totally agree; install costs in that environment are low (on the order of a few hundred bucks, if that) as long as you build the infrastructure in when the complex is created. However I'm pretty sure Opelika isn't one big MDU 
In all seriousness though, I'm going to try and get into some MDUs around here once we get our fiber pipe in. Not sure what the offerings will be yet, but the pricing *might* be symmetric-for-the-price-of-asymmetric (e.g. 5/5 for $40, 10/10 for $50, 20/20 for $75). Not awesome, but better than what's available now. |
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 rebus9 join:2002-03-26 Tampa Bay Reviews:
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2 edits | reply to FBGuy said by FBGuy:said by iansltx:How are you going to finance the $1000+ per customer build with $29.95 per month service?. 30 yr contracts Ummm.... $1000 divided by $30/month = 33.3 months. So how about 3 year contracts.
Obviously that covers some of the CapEx but not OpEx of the service, but if they're going to finance with a bond issue, they'll be able to amortize the build costs over a much longer horizon before the bonds come due.
At an average cost of just over $1200 per resident, this to me seems like a reasonably good investment with the payback of futureproofing the town.
I also find it amusing that Knology is contributing to this effort in a positive way. |
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| reply to iansltx said by iansltx:How are you going to finance the $1000+ per customer build with $29.95 per month service? $45-$60 per month, sure, but $30 per month would be a very bad idea. The $1000 per subscriber was a Verizon quoted figure based upon Keller Tx, and Metro NY. While each geography is different, that number has sure come down since most municipal deployments won't be hiring UNIONIZED contractors for the build, have to negotiate shotgun marriages for utility pole access and deal with video franchise palm greasing. I'd guess the build could go somewhere in the $500-$800 range given similar geography densities as the '03 builds and the money would be recouped by an esitmated 50% market share (over 10 years) since the competition would have NOTHING on-tap including docsis 3 to compete with it for a number of years. Try having any cable company touch that pricing structure.. contracts are irrelevant if you've got a market virutally locked up due to no evident competitive force.
Most people when trying to tear down muni or other privatized builds from new public and/or public/private partnerships look towards the short term aspects once they can't put any other doubts in the consumer's mind about keeping the status quo. As Verizon's marketshare rises to 25% in Ny Metro (from 17%) based upon competing on substantially similar pricing of the nearest competitors and finally offering "digital voice". The fuse has been lit as proof that once the service is PRICED RIGHT, they will come.
Incumbents need to deal with a new reality that the neglected greographies will not tolerate lack of investment & competition as excuses for "DO NOTHING" mentalities of cable and telco providers. If spending millions of dollars lobbying to keep the status quo couldn't be better spend actually upgrading... that speaks volumes in and of itself.
Imagine a day when oil companies have to fight to keep the corner gas station from converting to hydrogen, natural gas or electric charging stations... some 25-50 years into the future. If you can't envision it now.. then it sure as hell won't happen in the future.
Some things many consumers dont' know.. that $1000+ pricetag included a 4-hour install which includes the provisioning & installation of 3 discrete services: internet, cable-tv and phone service. Service techs for Verizon get around $20+/hour plus benefits and progressive union seniority. Various cost controls could easily halve those early day pioneers. EG: no Hummer trucks rolling around town. |
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 iansltx join:2007-02-19 Golden, CO kudos:2 Reviews:
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| That's the thing...Verizon has economies of scale and Opelika is specifically stating that the per-install cost is over $1000...which is actually low compared with other fiber install costs I've seen.
Also, cable companies CAN touch that pricing structure. See Shaw in areas served by Novus; they'll lose money if they have to in order to wall out potential competitors, because people will buy on price and the cable companies have already amortized their infrastructure several times over.
Also, $20 per hour is a decent wage, but I wouldn't go much lower than that for fear of compromising the quality of installs. Pretty sure that's what you're going to get across the board no matter who you decide to work with, union or non-union. Okay, maybe $15 per hour...
I'm very much pro-muni-fiber, however I think it's irresponsible to make a pricing structure that ends up being a perpetual loss leader, even if it results in 100% market share. And yes, I'm saying that 100/100 for $30 per month is a loss leader ANYWHERE in the US right now, except in an MDU-only context with cheap bandwidth available. |
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 openbox9Premium join:2004-01-26 japan kudos:2 | reply to rebus9 Getting a $33M install for 27,000 residents to $1200/install, kind of assumes more than 100% take-rate (more than one resident per household), which I'm guessing won't happen. With ~9,200 households, you're looking at ~$3500 per install, assuming all residential, single family installs. At $30 of pure profit per month for service, you'd be looking at almost 10 years to break even. Then factor in paying the rest of the expenses that any business (private or government) will have, and you're looking at more than $30/mth/install, at 100% take-rate, to realistically be able to pay for the project in 10 years. Seems kind of grandiose to me. |
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 BlueC join:2009-11-26 Minneapolis, MN | reply to iansltx said by iansltx:In MDU, I totally agree; install costs in that environment are low (on the order of a few hundred bucks, if that) as long as you build the infrastructure in when the complex is created. However I'm pretty sure Opelika isn't one big MDU  In all seriousness though, I'm going to try and get into some MDUs around here once we get our fiber pipe in. Not sure what the offerings will be yet, but the pricing *might* be symmetric-for-the-price-of-asymmetric (e.g. 5/5 for $40, 10/10 for $50, 20/20 for $75). Not awesome, but better than what's available now. I agree. A city-wise solution is obviously more $$$$.
I'm working with some telcos around here to implement FTTB to residential low-high rises. The costs are actually not bad at all to get the fiber into the building. The big costs are buying the switches for the building (to distribute bandwidth to each unit) and upgrading wiring if needed. |
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 FBGuyPremium join:2005-03-19 Evanston, IL | reply to rebus9 sorry i forgot the /s i fixed my post lol |
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 | reply to iansltx said by iansltx:That's the thing...Verizon has economies of scale and Opelika is specifically stating that the per-install cost is over $1000...which is actually low compared with other fiber install costs I've seen. Also, cable companies CAN touch that pricing structure. See Shaw in areas served by Novus; they'll lose money if they have to in order to wall out potential competitors, because people will buy on price and the cable companies have already amortized their infrastructure several times over. Also, $20 per hour is a decent wage, but I wouldn't go much lower than that for fear of compromising the quality of installs. Pretty sure that's what you're going to get across the board no matter who you decide to work with, union or non-union. Okay, maybe $15 per hour... I'm very much pro-muni-fiber, however I think it's irresponsible to make a pricing structure that ends up being a perpetual loss leader, even if it results in 100% market share. And yes, I'm saying that 100/100 for $30 per month is a loss leader ANYWHERE in the US right now, except in an MDU-only context with cheap bandwidth available. Agreed. But doing triple play can help alleviate costs a little. |
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 iansltx join:2007-02-19 Golden, CO kudos:2 | I believe the premise tmc8080 (?) made was that you were just selling 100/100 for $30 with no double/triple play option. |
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 | reply to openbox9 No wonder all these municipalities are going belly up. |
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 marigoldsGainfully employed, finallyPremium,MVM join:2002-05-13 Saint Louis, MO kudos:2 | reply to iansltx said by iansltx:Install costs don't magically get retroactively lower. Sure they do. It's called inflation. The $1,000 you borrow today is only worth $744 10 years from now. Municipal bond rates are so ridiculously cheap right now (especially with Build America bonds) that it is a perfect time to invest in municipal infrastructure if you can get the political will to pass the tax to back the bonds. (Especially if you are smart enough to phase the tax in after 1 year, when the economy is likely to be stronger.) -- ISCABBS - the oldest and largest BBS on the Internet telnet://bbs.iscabbs.com Professional Geographer Geographic Information Science researcher |
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 marigoldsGainfully employed, finallyPremium,MVM join:2002-05-13 Saint Louis, MO kudos:2 | reply to openbox9 You are forgetting about commercial businesses and renter occupied units. (Not to mention Charter starts charging government buildings $1,000+ per building per year next year for internet access, so you have a pretty enormous savings there as well depending on how many schools, police stations, etc the city has.) |
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 iansltx join:2007-02-19 Golden, CO kudos:2 Reviews:
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| reply to marigolds Actually, you've got it backwards. The $1000 spent now could have been invested and grown to $1000+ later. The $1000 would only become worth less if you sat on it, which isn't the case because it's being borrowed.
Also, I draw the line at having taxes paying for muni broadband. Others may disagree with me on this, but I would actually vote against a muni broadband operation that was tax-financed rather than bond-financed. The infrastructure should be self-sustaining and not require a tax bailout. Nobody should be able to do predatory pricing, cross-subsidizing two completely different industries, not even a municipal government.
Let's say the bonds are ten-year at 6%. A little short and a little high for interest, but that gives us a required $12.22 per month debt payment to pay for a $1100 fiber installation. More numbers forthcoming. |
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 marigoldsGainfully employed, finallyPremium,MVM join:2002-05-13 Saint Louis, MO kudos:2 | said by iansltx:Actually, you've got it backwards. The $1000 spent now could have been invested and grown to $1000+ later. The $1000 would only become worth less if you sat on it, which isn't the case because it's being borrowed. ... Let's say the bonds are ten-year at 6%. City reserve funds have to be held in liquid accounts that rarely get over 1% interest. So, holding assets for investment is generally a loser. Better off reducing taxes if you go that route (and reducing taxes is not an option here since these are revenue backed bonds).
Most likely these are revenue back Build America bonds. That means 20-, 25-, or 30-year bonds (depends on the average deployment life of the equipment purchased) with a 35% coupon subsidy from the federal government. That gives them an effect rate in the 4.5% to 4.8% range for most utilities (depending on the bond rating). -- ISCABBS - the oldest and largest BBS on the Internet telnet://bbs.iscabbs.com Professional Geographer Geographic Information Science researcher |
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 iansltx join:2007-02-19 Golden, CO kudos:2 | I believe fiber infrastructure is amortized at 20 years, though I need to dig up my economics textbook to double-check that. So my 4.8% loan amount is pretty close to dead on for the bond payments they'd have to pay out each month. |
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