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 espaethDigital PlumberPremium,MVM
join:2001-04-21
Minneapolis, MN
kudos:2
 ·Vitelity VOIP
| reply to BF69
Re: $$ said by BF69:And while some may say 325,000 net loss for pay TV is small it also doesn't factor or in population growth. Pay TV would need to add about 250,000 subs per quarter just to keep up with population growth. So the loss is really closer to 600,000 not 325,000 Using what numbers? The rate of US population growth is declining, including in the key demographic for new PayTV subcribers (the 18+ bracket): 
Source:»www.prb.org/Articles/2012/us-pop···ine.aspxImmigration is also declining due to the unemployment situation in the US. Also, looking at the Q2 number alone is misleading because the Q2 numbers have been lower in the cycle than the other quarters for the last few years. 
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 BF69Premium
join:2004-07-28
Camden, TN | Ok so using you're own numbers the US population grew by 2.26 million people. between 2010-2011. There are about 2.6 people per household( according to the US census ). So the number of households in the US in is increasing by 870,000 per year or 218,000 per quarter. It's been pretty consistent that at least 90% of US household subscribe to pay TV over the last 15 or so years. So of that pay TV should have been increasing by 196,000 per quarter just to keep up with population growth. But it's lost about 325,000 even taking into account the growth in subscribers of u-verse/FiOS. So that's a true loss of 520,000. | | |
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espaethDigital PlumberPremium,MVM
join:2001-04-21
Minneapolis, MN
kudos:2 Reviews:
·Vitelity VOIP
| said by BF69:Ok so using you're own numbers the US population grew by 2.26 million people. between 2010-2011. There are about 2.6 people per household( according to the US census ). So the number of households in the US in is increasing by 870,000 per year or 218,000 per quarter. It's been pretty consistent that at least 90% of US household subscribe to pay TV over the last 15 or so years. So of that pay TV should have been increasing by 196,000 per quarter just to keep up with population growth. But it's lost about 325,000 even taking into account the growth in subscribers of u-verse/FiOS. So that's a true loss of 520,000. No. The graphs show a shifting of the numbers between the U18, 18-64, and 65+ demographics. The population growth is due to about 4 million infants born every year, plus about 700k in immigration (down from the typical 900k-1m pre-2009), minus about 2.5 million in annual deaths. Growth only counts in the 18-64 age bracket because that's where new TV subscribers come from. (people in the 65+ age bracket likely already have TV)
Also, these things are cyclical, and Q2 number are always comparatively worse than the other quarters in the year for whatever reason. (many in the satellite TV forums have speculated it's due to people cancelling TV for the summer)
Yes, there were losses this quarter, but Q1 numbers posted a 494k subscriber gain. It's a little early to say the sky is falling when there are still more PayTV subscribers right now than there were at this time last year.
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