ghostpainter
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| Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion Nov. 8-19
Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion Nov. 8-19
345 PM EDT Thu. Nov. 5, 2009
Above normal temperatures are forecast for much of the nation except the Northwest where below normal temperatures are expected during the period Nov. 8-12.
Models and ensembles are in fair agreement on the forecast 500 hpa height pattern for the period Nov. 11-15. Recent ensembles from the GFS, the European and the Canadian models all predict a fast north Pacific jet into the Aleutians with a deep trough centered west of Alaska. The 00Z and 06Z GFS ensembles are forecasting a trough over the West extending southward and a ridge over the eastern U.S. The 00Z European ensemble means predict a somewhat more amplified ridge over the East and weaker western trough. The 00Z GFS operational models predict a similar pattern over the nation. Below normal temperatures are forecast for much of the Rockies and the Southwest. Above normal temperatures are forecast for the northern and central Plains, the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Above normal precipitation is forecast for the Northwest. Below normal precipitation is forecast for the Southwest, a large part of the Rockies and the western Plains. Above normal precipitation is forecast for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the interior mid-Atlantic and the northern New England.
The ensembles are in fair agreement on the forecast 500 hpa pattern for the period Nov. 13-19. The ensembles operational models are in agreement in maintaining a strong north Pacific jet into the Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska. There is some disagreement on the forecast across the nation among ensemble means solutions with most recent model solutions indicating a progression of a trough over the nation. This progression would result in lowering heights over the eastern part of the nation and rising heights over the West. The 00Z and 06Z GFS operational models have a trough over the East and a ridge over the West. Little change is expected in the precipitation anomalies. However, differences were noted in the temperature anomalies as noted above.
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