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ghostpainter
I Write for the Apocalypse
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| Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion Nov. 3-14
Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion Nov. 3-14
326 PM EDT Sat. Oct. 31, 2009
A brisk cyclonic flow is expected across the northern portion of the nation, dominated by the polar jet for the period Nov. 3-7. The UKMET and the Canadian models depict a pattern consisting of a flat western ridge and an eastern trough late next week. However, this differs from the 00Z European which has more of a broad trough developing over southwestern Canada.
Models and ensembles are in good agreement on the expected 500-hpa pattern for the period Nov. 6-10. The pattern features a low amplitude flow across the nation with a tendency for weak troughs over the northeastern part of the country and the Gulf of Alaska. A weak ridge is forecast across the west-central part of the nation. The GFS ensembles remain more amplified both with the trough forecast over the Northeast and the upstream ridge compared to the European and the Canadian ensembles. The PNA index has recently become almost neutral and is forecast to become slightly negative through day 10 and then positive by day 14. The NAO index has recently has been slight positive and is forecast to become positive by day 7, trend towards negative by day 14. Below normal heights are forecast across the Northeast. Above to near normal heights are forecast across much of the remainder of the nation and the western Aleutians. The expectations of a low amplitude flow pattern, suggests much of the nation will be dominated by air of Pacific origin. This will likely cause above normal temperatures across a large part of the nation. Below normal temperatures are forecast across the Northeast. Above normal precipitation is forecast along the northern California coast and the northwest coast. The Pacific flow will likely cause dry conditions across much of the nation, across the Rockies, the Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast.
The GFS and the Canadian ensembles continue to depict a slow progression of the flow pattern compared to that forecast in the previous period during Nov. 8-14. This will result in a fast zonal flow across the nation. A trough is forecast over southeastern into the Northeast and a flat ridge over the west-central U.S. A trough is also forecast over the Gulf of Alaska. The 0Z and 6Z operational GFS are more amplified with the expected flow pattern and the 6Z operational GFS is less progressive with the main circulation features. Above normal heights are forecast across the much of the nation. Little change is expected in the temperature and precipitation anomalies.
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