Flippant
So Much For Subtlety
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join:2000-06-04
Katy, TX
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| Yikes it's Ike
Ike 5 day cone |
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Corona
It's cool, I'm takin it back
Premium
join:2000-03-14
San Antonio, TX
| Three of the six models show it heading into western Louisiana. Gonna have to keep an eye on this one (got friends there).
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ilikeme
I live in a van down by the river.
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join:2002-08-27
Houston, TX
clubs:  
 ·Comcast
edit:
September 8th, @06:04PM
| reply to Flippant
Models have shifted more to the west. Houston may end up being on the nasty side of this storm. |
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AmeritecTech
Change we can believe in, 1922
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join:2002-09-06
00000
| reply to Flippant
said by Flippant  :Well this does not look good. Too early to really say where or how hard but not too early to start thinking about it... One thing I found out about these projections is that they incorporate population levels into their models. In other words, there is a greater tendency for projections to appear to be targeting major population centers like Houston or New Orleans when that may not be exactly true.
If the math actually shows its going to hit south of Victoria, it will appear to be targeting Houston directly for a long while until the storm gets much closer. That's why hurricanes always seem to be aimed directly at us when they come near.
This is done by NOAA because they're trying to protect and warn as many people as possible.
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"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone Not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that ALWAYS come in legions."
-John Callari |
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Corona
It's cool, I'm takin it back
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join:2000-03-14
San Antonio, TX | Interesting. I didnt know they did that. |
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AmeritecTech
Change we can believe in, 1922
Premium
join:2002-09-06
00000
| said by Corona :Interesting. I didnt know they did that. Yeah, once you know to look for it, it becomes more and more obvious. Like with Gustav, those projections were smack-dab centered on New Orleans for the longest time, until the angle it would have to turn looked impossible and then it snapped quickly away and to the more western areas of Louisiana. Also, when it was far out to sea, the far-western edge of the projection for Gustav ended exactly at Houston.
Watch how it seems to hold Houston in the western edge of the white cone even when it seems pretty unlikely that it could make such a dramatic turn: »www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLzmMeksORY
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"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone Not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that ALWAYS come in legions."
-John Callari |
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SandShark
So it goes
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join:2000-05-23
Santa Fe, TX
clubs:
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| reply to AmeritecTech
said by AmeritecTech :said by Flippant :Well this does not look good. Too early to really say where or how hard but not too early to start thinking about it... One thing I found out about these projections is that they incorporate population levels into their models. In other words, there is a greater tendency for projections to appear to be targeting major population centers like Houston or New Orleans when that may not be exactly true. If the math actually shows its going to hit south of Victoria, it will appear to be targeting Houston directly for a long while until the storm gets much closer. That's why hurricanes always seem to be aimed directly at us when they come near. This is done by NOAA because they're trying to protect and warn as many people as possible. Not that I don't believe what you're saying, but I'd like a more authoritative source, if you have one. |
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AmeritecTech
Change we can believe in, 1922
Premium
join:2002-09-06
00000 | I read it on a NOAA or NWS-related site, but I can't recall where, so take it with a grain of salt. |
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removed
I performed my own circumcision
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join:2002-02-08
Houston, TX
clubs:
| reply to Flippant
Not looking good, but I think it's still way too early to get worried about this one. |
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Corona
It's cool, I'm takin it back
Premium
join:2000-03-14
San Antonio, TX | IT's COMIN RIGHT FOR US!
Good thing I'll be in Dallas. |
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only me
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join:2002-09-26
Texas
| reply to Flippant
Corpus is dead center.. |
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ilikeme
I live in a van down by the river.
Premium
join:2002-08-27
Houston, TX
clubs: | reply to Flippant
I heard that it is expected to go back to the east some once it is into the gulf, which will be sometime tomorrow afternoon. |
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SandShark
So it goes
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join:2000-05-23
Santa Fe, TX
clubs:
·Verizon Online DSL
| said by ilikeme :I heard that it is expected to go back to the east some once it is into the gulf, which will be sometime tomorrow afternoon. Let's hope you "heard" wrong. |
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Flippant
So Much For Subtlety
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join:2000-06-04
Katy, TX
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| reply to only me
Dang that prediction is a bit close to home. Hunker Down!
I still think it will be changing. So far it has moved from NOLA to Houston and now Victoria. I do not know if the models themselves are population based but I would not doubt the "median" prediction was. If they predict it would come ashore where hardly anyone lives, almost know one would care. By predicting populated areas you can have the people of an effected area get prepared just in case. |
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Corona
It's cool, I'm takin it back
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join:2000-03-14
San Antonio, TX | I'm retarded. I didn't realize you were so close by! |
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only me
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join:2002-09-26
Texas
| lol. u know u ATT guys in SA think that y'all are the only ones to exist in the company  j/k
We shall see what happens.. boards are up on the house.. started last night.. as of the most recent models.. it looks like it might hit right below Corpus
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i want to be famous in the way a pulley is famous, not because it did anything spectacular.. but because it never forgets what it can do |
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Corona
It's cool, I'm takin it back
Premium
join:2000-03-14
San Antonio, TX
| said by only me :lol. u know u ATT guys in SA think that y'all are the only ones to exist in the company j/k We shall see what happens.. boards are up on the house.. started last night.. as of the most recent models.. it looks like it might hit right below Corpus :P wish they would move me to DFW. |
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only me
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join:2002-09-26
Texas
| reply to Flippant
turning North |
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BruceT
join:2001-11-28
Corpus Christi, TX
| Hey Only Me..... I just hope he keeps this recent move north. I know it is too early to tell but when I looked at the recent update I was relieved. It looked all day as if Corpus had the crosshairs on em. |
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only me
Premium,VIP
join:2002-09-26
Texas
| Bruce Im with you!!!!! We have half the boards up already and I told my husband.. well.. even if it ends up being a false alarm.. We'll save on our electric bill!!!! We'll know a lot more by tomorrow!
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i want to be famous in the way a pulley is famous, not because it did anything spectacular.. but because it never forgets what it can do |
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