ghostpainter
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September 7th, @12:15PM
| Hurricane Ike
This system also has the potential to become a tropical system. |
|
ghostpainter
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edit:
September 1st, @05:19PM
| TS (IKE)
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 01, 2008
satellite images and surface data indicate that the low pressure
area associated with a tropical wave that has been tracked over the
eastern tropical Atlantic for the past few days has become better
organized. The system has developed plently of convection..numerous
cyclonically curved bands and a well established outflow. Dvorak
T-numbers support tropical storm intensity at this time but I would
rather wait to see if the deep convection holds for while to call it
a tropical storm...probably in the next advisory. Initial intensity
is set at 30 knots but given the warm ocean along its path and the
low shear...the depression is forecast to reach hurricane status
over the next several days. The official forecast follows the SHIPS
intensity model.
Since the depression has just formed...the initial intensity is a
little bit uncertain. The best estimate is 275 degrees at 14 knots.
The
depression is located south of a strong subtropical ridge which is
building and expanding westward according to most of the global
models. This pattern calls for a general west to west-northwest
track for the next 2 to 3 days. Therefater...as the high builds
farther westward...the cyclone could turn more to the west. The
official forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and
very close to the model consensus. Since the track guidance is
rather tight...the forecast confidence is relatively high.
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ghostpainter
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| satellite images that the cloud pattern associated with the
depression has continued to become better organized. The convection
has increased...curved bands are becoming more distinct
and the outflow is fair in all quadrants. Dvorak T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB have increased to 3.0 on the Dvorak scale. On this
basis...the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Ike with an
initial intensity of 45 knots. Given the warm ocean along its path
and the low shear...Ike is forecast to reach hurricane status in
about 36 hours. The rate of strengthening is consistent with the
SHIPS model guidance but much lower than the GFDL and significantly
lower than the HWRF. The latter makes Ike an intense hurricane
north of Hispaniola.
Ike is moving toward the west or 275 degrees at 14 knots. The storm
is already located south of a strong subtropical ridge which is
building and expanding westward according to most of the global
models. This pattern calls for a general west to west-northwest
track for the next 2 to 3 days. Thereafter...as the high builds
farther westward...the cyclone could turn more to the west or even
west-southwest . The official forecast is very similar to the
previous one and follows the model consensus. Since the track
guidance continues to be rather tight...the forecast confidence
remains relatively high.
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Kevin Martin
join:2007-11-28
edit:
September 1st, @05:51PM
| Dvorak Scale means nothing. It's like an IR satellite image. Doesn't say what Cat it is. I've see Dvorak of 4.0 on a Depression. It's such a poor indicator of strength It's not even funny. |
|
ghostpainter
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| Ike to be Hurricane in 36 hrs heads for Gulf of Mexico
satellite images that the cloud pattern associated with the
depression has continued to become better organized. The convection
has increased...curved bands are becoming more distinct
and the outflow is fair in all quadrants. Dvorak T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB have increased to 3.0 on the Dvorak scale. On this
basis...the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Ike with an
initial intensity of 45 knots. Given the warm ocean along its path
and the low shear...Ike is forecast to reach hurricane status in
about 36 hours. The rate of strengthening is consistent with the
SHIPS model guidance but much lower than the GFDL and significantly
lower than the HWRF. The latter makes Ike an intense hurricane
north of Hispaniola.
Ike is moving toward the west or 275 degrees at 14 knots. The storm
is already located south of a strong subtropical ridge which is
building and expanding westward according to most of the global
models. This pattern calls for a general west to west-northwest
track for the next 2 to 3 days. Thereafter...as the high builds
farther westward...the cyclone could turn more to the west or even
west-southwest . The official forecast is very similar to the
previous one and follows the model consensus. Since the track
guidance continues to be rather tight...the forecast confidence
remains relatively high.
--
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A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes |
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Hayward
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Key West, FL
edit:
September 2nd, @03:47AM
| reply to ghostpainter
Re: TS (IKE) heads for Key West and Gulf
Re: TS (IKE) heads for Key West and Gulf
OK come on its so far out who can say.... and NOT one Model line in your OP shows it doing so, more like playing follow the leader with Hannah, up the east coast if not just mid Atlantic.
Can't we ever for something to actually pattern develope before wildly speculating.
Even the second one not a bulls eye... might strangely enough by those models shoot the DR/Haiti-Cuba Slot, and go into the Caribbean.
That far out Hannah looked just about the same way... first maybe diving into Cuba... or heading north talk about covering all bets.
--
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)
|
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ghostpainter
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| I am basing my tracking on the fact that the Bermuda High will move in behind Hanna and set up a blocking pattern that will steer Ike right into the Florida Straights or even along the spine of the Caribbean Islands. |
|
sansri88
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| reply to ghostpainter
734
WTNT34 KNHC 022041
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST TUE SEP 02 2008
...IKE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1030 MILES
...1655 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. IKE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...19.2 N...46.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/KNABB
--
Sriram Satish
Comcast of NJ II sucks. Period.
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Hayward
K A R - 1 2 0 C
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Key West, FL
edit:
September 2nd, @10:58PM
| reply to ghostpainter
At the 11pm, still seems to be most models diving for the Carribean... not that we aren't paying attention in KW. And actually the longer Hannah takes to make up her mind to move North the better.
Though long enough they might merge... then who knows.
--
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)
|
|
pcdebb
I see you
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| said by Hayward  :And actually the longer Hannah takes to make up her mind to move North the better. Though long enough they might merge... then who knows. i was thinking about that. Hanna is just kinda hanging out but Ike is making a serious move across the map. he's gonna catch up if she doesnt do something
--
a time for change... | 1st & 10 | Ham is good |
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lilhurricane
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| reply to ghostpainter
000
WTNT34 KNHC 030834
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM AST WED SEP 03 2008
...IKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...HAS NOT STRENGTHENED
RECENTLY...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST OR ABOUT 835 MILES...
1340 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN
NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...20.6 N...49.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
--
~Safe Hex~ Team Discovery ~ Project Hope ~ Like A Hurricane~ |
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ghostpainter
I Write for the Apocalypse
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| Ike almost a Hurricane and moving west
Tropical Storm Ike Advisory Number 9
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al092008
1100 Am Ast Wed Sep 03 2008
...Ike Almost A Hurricane...
At 1100 Am Ast...1500Z...The Center Of Tropical Storm Ike Was
Located Near Latitude 20.8 North...Longitude 51.2 West Or About 740
Miles...1190 Km...East-Northeast Of The Leeward Islands.
Ike Is Moving Toward The West-Northwest Near 18 Mph...30 Km/Hr...And
This General Motion Is Expected To Continue Through Thursday...
Followed By A Turn To The West On Friday...Taking Ike
Over The Open Waters Of The West-Central Atlantic During The Next
Couple Of Days. It Is Too Early To Determine What If Any Land Areas
Might Be Directly Affected By Ike.
Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 70 Mph...110
Km/Hr...With Higher Gusts. Strengthening Is Forecast During The
Next Day Or Two...And Ike Is Forecast To Become A Hurricane Later
Today.
Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140 Miles...220 Km
From The Center.
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 991 Mb...29.26 Inches.
Repeating The 1100 Am Ast Position...20.8 N...51.2 W. Movement
Toward...West-Northwest Near 18 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...70
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...991 Mb.
The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
500 Pm Ast.
$$
Forecaster Knabb
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A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes |
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sansri88
Go digtal you analog laggards
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Iselin, NJ
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| reply to ghostpainter
Hurricane Ike
222
WTNT34 KNHC 032046
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008
...IKE BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST OR ABOUT 670 MILES...1080
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR....AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE
AFFECTED BY IKE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.6 N...52.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
--
Sriram Satish
Comcast of NJ II sucks. Period.
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ghostpainter
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| Hurricane Ike Discussion Number 10
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2008
As anticipated...Ike has continued to strengthen and all
satellite-based estimates say it has become a hurricane. Since the
1800 UTC Dvorak estimates of 65 kt...an eye has become apparent in
late-day visible imagery...so the intensity is set to 70 kt. The
cyclone is intensifying within a cocoon of nearly zero vertical
wind shear...in between the deep-layer low over the northwestern
Atlantic and an upper-level trough dominating the eastern portion
of the basin. Water vapor imagery reveals that the upper-level
northerlies along the western flank of the eastern trough are
starting to just slightly restrict Ike's outflow. Global models
forecast the shear to increase from the east...but probably not
quickly enough to halt Ike's intensification trend in the short
term. The new official forecast shows an intermediate intensity
peak at 24 hours prior to the onset of the shear...followed by
slight weakening until the shear abates after Ike gets farther
west. By that time...in about 72 hours...ocean and atmospheric
factors become quite conducive for intensification...and the
dynamical models GFDL and HWRF...forecast a major hurricane by days
4 and 5...which is also shown in the official forecast. Long-range
intensity forecasts are rather uncertain...however...and the
intensity probability table included in this advisory package
indicates that there is roughly a 50 percent chance that Ike will
be a major hurricane four and five days from now. If Ike is weaker
than the official forecast at days 3-5...then the
statistical-dynamical models SHIPS and lgem will turn out to be
more accurate.
The hurricane continues heading west-northwestward or 290/16. As
the large and deep-layer low currently just off the northeast
U.S. Coast departs to the northeast...mid-level ridging will build
over the western Atlantic...which will push Ike generally westward
during the next several days. Undulations in the track are
likely though. Ike should continue west-northwestward until the
western Atlantic ridge forms...after which the tropical cyclone
will gradually round that ridge. The big question at longer ranges
is if and when Ike will rotate around the western periphery of that
ridge...which will determine whether Ike directly affects any land
areas. The models do not provide an unanimous answer...which is
not surprising this far in advance. All of the models do show the
beginnings of a motion north of due west by day 5...but it is too
early to determine if this is the start of recurvature...or if
enough ridging will remain beyond day 5 to keep Ike moving
generally westward.
--
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sansri88
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| reply to ghostpainter
Hurricane Ike Special Advisory
148
WTNT34 KNHC 032345
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008
...IKE BECOMES THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST OR ABOUT 645 MILES...1035
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY
IKE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THIRD HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...21.7 N...53.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
--
Sriram Satish
Comcast of NJ II sucks. Period.
25 HD channels compared to the average 32 or so. |
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quatrix
join:2005-02-11
Davie, FL
| reply to Hayward
Re: TS (IKE) heads for Key West and Gulf
said by Hayward :At the 11pm, still seems to be most models diving for the Carribean... not that we aren't paying attention in KW. And actually the longer Hannah takes to make up her mind to move North the better. The last time I checked, Key West was very close to the Caribbean. And the latest 5-day forecast, though highly uncertain, has it headed straight for South Florida as a Category-4. The earlier forecast had it "diving" at the end of the 5-day span but didn't show anything after that. |
|
Budster
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Prairieville, LA
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| reply to ghostpainter
Hurricane Ike
115mph |
|
A predicate
@swbell.net
| Well to my census it seems that ike will follow the models trail since the high pressure ridge building up just northwest of it. therefore its gona pound south florida as major hurricane then enter Gulf of Mexico, become another katrina and keep the west track.. passing by new orleans sayin nah forget them i dont wanna make the army core of enginers look like idiots... and then once the high pressure starts moving east ike will turn a bit NW or WNW impacting texas.. where? maybe Houston. ANyone got a better Bet??? |
|
quatrix
join:2005-02-11
Davie, FL | reply to Budster
said by Budster :115mph Nope, Category 4 and 135 as of 11 PM. |
|
sansri88
Go digtal you analog laggards
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Iselin, NJ
clubs:
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| reply to ghostpainter
Hurricane Ike--Upgraded to Cat 4
453
WTNT34 KNHC 040253
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008
...IKE BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.1 WEST OR ABOUT 610 MILES...
980 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY
IKE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...22.1 N...54.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
--
Sriram Satish
Comcast of NJ II sucks. Period.
25 HD channels compared to the average 32 or so. |
|
